The verdicts keep coming and are all the same for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. And the second defeat suffered in less than three months, this one in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, is even more devastating for the Prime Minister. A second Liberal stronghold lost, this time to the Bloc Québécois. On Montreal’s Red Island, no less. The specter of an equally bitter defeat in the next general election looms. The Prime Minister’s troops can, however, fall back on a small consolation: no one, with the exception of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, has any interest in rushing to the polls.
The disavowal inflicted on the federal Liberals in Montreal’s west end is painful. It will have been even more so for Justin Trudeau, the defection of the electorate now being expressed as far as Quebec and in his metropolis, where he himself is a federal MP.
Determined to keep this riding red for decades, with a few brief exceptions, the Liberals had put all their efforts into it. In the hope of slowing down the recantation, the campaign signs did not display the portrait of the Liberal leader. The candidate, Laura Palestini, even insisted that the election was about her own candidacy, and not that of the prime minister. However, the Liberal vote collapsed, dropping by nearly 16 points. Beyond the unpopularity of the prime minister, it was the Liberal Party that was given a thaw.
Justin Trudeau is not going away. He remains determined to defend his legacy to the end and very aware that a possible successor would probably not have much better results. His troops seem resigned to this, waiting for the promised changes in strategy, which inexplicably still have not come.
The Bloc’s victory in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun confirms the popular support of the sovereignist party in Quebec and allows Yves-François Blanchet to cautiously hope to make other gains (because such a three-way race will not be repeated everywhere across Quebec).
Its balance of power, to the benefit of Quebecers, is also enhanced. The Trudeau government has every interest in responding, for its survival, to the demands of the Bloc and the wishes of Quebec, which, despite the defeat suffered, remains its only hope for electoral refuge. The Bloc members will also find it to their advantage, because calling a general election in the fall would offer a majority to the Conservatives, which the Bloc does not want.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh will also prefer to take his time, since his recent divorce from the Liberal Party only allowed him to narrowly save his own stronghold of Elmwood-Transcona, Manitoba. The Conservative vote, however, jumped 16 points in this riding considered a barometer of the struggles that the two parties are now waging for the working class. In Montreal, all the energy deployed for months by the New Democratic Party did not allow the party to rise above third place. Mr. Singh’s inelegant electoral contortions, such as his telegraphed abandonment of carbon pricing for consumers, risk multiplying and thus undermining what remains of his credibility.
Pierre Poilievre only had to increase his support in Manitoba to consolidate his leading position in the Canadian electoral scale. He succeeded. His much more timid progression in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun confirms, however, that the Conservative leader and his abrasive style are running into the Quebec wall.
The acrimonious tone will not calm down any time soon. The parliamentary session was marked by insults, both Conservative and Liberal, with Mr. Trudeau’s team deciding to throw in the towel against the menacing adversary’s mendacious escalation. Mr. Poilievre was called a “fraudster,” a “bully” and an “irresponsible” who only cared about his own interests. Mr. Trudeau, for his part, was called a “hypocrite” and a “fake feminist.”
The Commons have become the scene of unedifying debates, guided by the survival of each individual rather than by the common good. A climate from which our public policies suffer.
The sad record of candidates in the Montreal by-election must also lead to some necessary reflection. A ballot paper one metre long, containing 91 names, is a disservice to both voters, who get lost, and serious candidates, who wait hours before learning their fate. The democratic right to run for office may be sacred, but that does not justify repeatedly abusing it as a form of protest, including the voting method.
The government cannot — and should never — act alone. However, the Chief Electoral Officer could recommend that it tighten the rules for nominations. If that is the case, the federal parties would do well to listen and put aside their animosity, at least this once. For the sake of our electoral system and its integrity.