A New York jury unanimously declared the former American president guilty of all 34 charges against him on Thursday. Judge Juan Merchan must now rule on his sentence on July 11.
Will Donald Trump go to prison? The question arises on Friday, May 31, the day after the verdict in the trial of the Stormy Daniels case. A jury found the former President of the United States guilty of all 34 counts of falsification of accounting documents against him in this case. The billionaire was being prosecuted in New York for having concealed a payment of $130,000 to this pornographic film actress, with the aim of buying her silence and therefore avoiding revelations which would have embarrassed his 2016 presidential campaign.
It now remains to be seen what sentence will be handed down to the Republican by Judge Juan Merchan on July 11. The magistrate will receive recommendations from prosecutor Alvin Bragg’s office, but he is the only one to decide on the sentence.
Under New York state law, the 34 charges for which Donald Trump was convicted can carry sentences of up to four years in prison. In theory, these sentences can be cumulative, up to a maximum of twenty years of incarceration, specifies the daily USAToday. However, it is likely that, if he were to impose prison sentences, Juan Merchan would force Donald Trump to serve them simultaneously, argues the New York Times. In this eventuality, the ex-president would therefore not spend more than four years behind bars.
There is also no minimum prison term for the charges against Donald Trump, explains lawyer and former prosecutor Dan Horwitz to CBS. Juan Merchan could therefore condemn him “several months” like a “Several weeks” of incarceration. Or even decide on a more unexpected sentence adjustment. “He could impose a sentence requiring him, for example, to go to prison every weekend for a fixed period, and conditional release the rest of the time”he explains.
During his six weeks of reflection, Juan Merchan will take several factors into account before making a decision. The magistrate “is known for handing out harsh sentences to white-collar criminals who have wealth and power”, underlines lawyer Ron Kuby, interviewed by the NBC News channel. The accounting falsifications accused of Donald Trump are also numerous and were implemented over more than a year. “It’s not just one bad decision.”insists Ron Kuby.
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Another element that could influence the sentence handed down: the attitude of the billionaire during the trial. The courts are more accommodating towards “an accused who pleads guilty by assuming responsibility for his actions, unlike those who [refusent de le faire] and are convicted at the end of the trial., notes Dan Horwitz from CBS. Donald Trump not only pleaded not guilty to the 34 charges against him, but he denounced after the verdict a procedure “rigged”, sponsored by “the administration Biden.”
The ex-president also challenged Juan Merchan several times during the trial. While he was under the influence of “gag orders”, a judge’s ruling barring him from speaking publicly about the jury or prosecutors, he has regularly criticized the prosecution on social media. This behavior earned him ten fines of a thousand dollars each, and threats of incarceration for contempt of court.
Many experts, however, believe that Donald Trump could avoid prison. The Republican presidential candidate is 77 years old (he will be 78 in mid-June) and has no previous criminal convictions. “It is a case which does not involve physical violence (…), and the court will also take this element into account”assures New York law professor Anna Cominsky, USA Today.
According to a study of comparable cases in New York State, relayed in the columns of New York Times, only 10% of convictions in these cases resulted in a prison sentence. Even if none so far has involved a former tenant of the White House.
Incarceration would also pose unprecedented logistical questions. As a former president, Donald Trump is subject to lifelong protection, provided by the secret services, recalls CBS. If the judge ever decided to send him to prison, he would therefore have to be constantly accompanied by agents, isolated from the rest of the inmates, and would require special measures to monitor his meals, the channel lists. Problems that the authorities have never faced, since the Republican is the first head of state to be criminally convicted in the history of the country.
In view of these elements, Juan Merchan could opt for house arrest, with an electronic bracelet, reports CBS. The billionaire would not be forced to stay in New York, where he was tried, but could return to his luxurious home in Mar-A-Lago, Florida, says former prosecutor Dan Horwitz. Donald Trump could also receive less severe penalties, such as community service, a fine, or parole under judicial supervision. In this case however, “he would need permission to leave the state”explains Washington Post.
Whatever sentence the judge imposes, it is very likely that it will be suspended upon appeal. Donald Trump has 30 days to file such an appeal, and he has already announced his intention to do so as soon as the verdict is announced. According to NBC News, the procedure could take months, even years, and would therefore not be completed until well after the presidential election on November 5.
Enough to allow the billionaire, assured of being the candidate of the Republican Party, to continue his campaign to try to return to the White House. But his road will still be strewn with new legal pitfalls: Donald Trump is charged in three other criminal trials, including two for attempting to reverse the results of the 2020 presidential election.