Despite a few media outings, the head of the Les Républicains party list is plateauing in the polls, with voting intentions stagnating between 6 and 8%. Franceinfo attended one of its public meetings in Yvelines.
“Oh! There are people”says a retiree as she enters the town hall of Chesnay (Yvelines). “And it’s hot !” a young activist responds with a smile, busy adding chairs to accommodate the 500 people who came to attend François-Xavier Bellamy’s public meeting on Tuesday, May 28. The head of the Republican list is “a local star”, having taken his first steps in politics in the municipal council of the neighboring commune of Versailles. And it shows: ten days before the European election on June 9, political supporters responded, like Valérie Pécresse, the president of the Ile-de-France region, and her “mentor” François de Mazières, the mayor of Versailles, seated in the front row. The public offers a standing ovation to the philosophy professor, asked for countless selfies at the end of the meeting.
This enthusiastic atmosphere contrasts with the disappointing predictions for the right-wing party list, whose popularity has never taken off, with voting intentions stagnating between 6 and 8% for several months. However, François-Xavier Bellamy’s supporters and even his opponents believe that he is having a good campaign. But caught between the extreme right – with the National Rally and Reconquest – and the majority, the Republicans are struggling. At party headquarters, we modestly hope to maintain the result of 2019. François-Xavier Bellamy then recorded the worst score of the right in the European elections, with 8.48% of the votes, converted into eight seats in the European Parliament. Keeping them today would be a real relief for LR.
“We don’t have many favorable elements in this campaign, we are going against the grain, going against the grain”recognizes François-Xavier Bellamy from the podium. “We inherit a discredit that weighs on our party.” And which also rubs off on his campaign. Paul and Maylis are among the youngest who slipped among the white hair this evening. The two twenty-somethings appreciate the head of the list, but find it “badly surrounded”. “LR has yo-yoed too much, with unclear positions on bioethics, on immigration, on national preference…” says Paul. “There is an opportunistic side among some”, clutches Maylis. Several party figures have also been poached by the government, like Rachida Dati in January. What explains the flight of part of the right-wing electorate to the Macronists?
“We suffer from a difficult positioning vis-à-vis Emmanuel Macron.”
A Republican parliamentarianat franceinfo
The Republicans also face competition on their right. According to an Ifop survey published on May 28, 19% of Valérie Pécresse’s voters in 2022 now support the list led by Jordan Bardella. And only two out of three François-Xavier Bellamy voters say they are sure of their choice for June 9. “François-Xavier Bellamy needs encouragement”, recognize Henri and Christian, two retirees from Versailles. Loyal members, they have always voted for LR, even in tough times, such as during the 2022 presidential election, when Valérie Pécresse recorded the worst score in the party’s history.
“He talks about Europe, not like the candidates who are making this election a national or local one.”
Henri, member of the Republicansat franceinfo
“He works hard and has extraordinary speaking skills”, he continues, under the approving gaze of Christian. Despite his strengths, the two men observe that their candidate does not make a breakthrough in voting intentions. “He is not well known enough”sighs Christian.
Media coverage is often criticized by supporters of the candidate, known by 65% of French people according to an OpinionWay survey. “We mainly judge the image, and there are only cacophonous debates”deplores Valérie Pécresse, who regrets in passing the “extremely toxic phenomenon” polls published daily. “We have to break through this media superficiality to get to the bottom of it”wants to believe the president of the Ile-de-France region. The candidate himself takes up this argument, to make the room laugh this evening. “I hope it wasn’t too incomprehensible”he says about the debate on BFMTV, in which he participated the day before. “If”proclaims the public. “If I could, I would have turned off the TV, but I was in the TV!” he added before solemnly saying: “I cannot resign myself to politics being a spectacle.”
However, his team has set itself the objective of “trying to break the sound barrier”.
“We have a good candidate, a good list, a good project, seriousness… Now we just have to make the message audible.”
Othman Nasrou, campaign director of François-Xavier Bellamyat franceinfo
The latter is delighted with the “very good” performance by François-Xavier Bellamy about the Attal-Bardella debate. Questioned on the set of France 2, just after the duel between the Prime Minister and the head of the National Rally list, well ahead in the polls, the candidate denounced “staged” And “the sign of a democratic crisis”. The sequence, which went viral, has been viewed several million times on social networks.
The campaign team attempted other stunts, sending François-Xavier Bellamy on May 7 to meet the rebellious MP Louis Boyard in front of Sciences-Po, blocked by students opposed to the war in Gaza. A “clash” which earned him an immediate invitation to Cyril Hanouna’s set on C8. The philosopher even launched himself on TikTok, a social network of buzz and conciseness. But the days and weeks pass and there is still no sign of voting intentions.
Internally, many doubt that the party will manage to repeat its 2019 score. Some even think that LR will fall below the 5% mark, the threshold to be reached to win seats. “Bellamy, it’s a big German sedan, but with a restricted engine, on a difficult hill and with an old rusty caravan hanging on the back”, depicts an executive of the group. An automotive metaphor to denounce the flaws of the party from which the head of the list suffers. “It was knowingly kept out of the spotlight between 2022 and 2024. Now, it is too late to make up for this image deficit in two weeks, it remains little known”continues this source.
In meetings, the candidate focuses on the fundamentals of the right-wing party, while targeting the National Rally and the presidential camp. From the platform, he criticizes French administrative slowness, advocates “control of our borders” and recalls his fight to ban “European Commission ads on wearing the hijab”. “Macronism means speaking like the right in Paris, but voting like the left in Brusselshe attacks. And the RN is the policy of the empty chair!”
The 38-year-old candidate knows that he still has one asset left, not flashy, but pragmatic: LR’s membership in the majority group in the European Parliament, the European People’s Party (EPP). “We don’t need to arrive first. In ten days, we will have a majority in the European Parliament and therefore in the Commission”he promises supporters, relying on a possible useful vote. “We are aiming for an electorate that understands the workings of the European Union. We are betting that in the home stretch, voters will make a reasonable choice”explains Pierre-Henri Dumont, the deputy for Pas-de-Calais.
For the Republicans, it is also about limiting the damage while waiting for better days. “The rivers will return to their beds once the Macron parenthesis is closed”, wants to believe Thomas Gourlan, president of the Rambouillet agglomeration. Looking further than June 9, François-Xavier Bellamy has the same hope: “U“One day, we will once again become the majority in the country.”