only three in 10 young people say they are sure to vote, according to a survey

In a survey by the Ipsos institute for France Télévisions and Brut, nearly one in two young people say they do not fully understand the issues at stake in the election.

Franceinfo would like to point out that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of opinion at a given moment. A poll is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also known as a “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error.

Were the European elections escaping half of young French people under 30? According to an Ipsos survey for France Télévisions and Brut*, published Wednesday May 29, only 53% of 18-29 year olds have the impression of understanding the major issues of the election, which takes place on June 9 in France, compared to 47% who experience the opposite feeling. And more than one in two young people (52%) say they are interested in these elections, while 30% are only moderately interested and 18% say they are not interested in this democratic meeting.

The risk is therefore to see a strong abstention from this age category, on the evening of an election which generally attracts less than one in two voters. According to this study, 58% of young people surveyed are probable (28%) or potential (30%) abstainers, compared to 11% who are almost certain. to go vote and 31% who say they are certain to go vote.

Among those who are certain or almost certain to vote, the main motivation for going to the polls is that of duty for 32% of them, ahead of support for the ideas of a political party (21%) and the desire to express dissatisfaction with the situation in the country (16%). As for probable or potential abstainers, it is the lack of information on the programs and the different lists which dominates (32%), with a particularly high score (47%) among the youngest.

On the other hand, if they do not have their eyes fixed on June 9 and its issues, 63% of young people questioned about what being European evokes for them cite a positive element: it is “an opportunity” for 30% and “a chance” for 23%. And almost half believe that the main advantage of being a European citizen is “be able to easily travel within Europe”.

On the merits of the issues, 50% believe that the action of the European Union is going in the right direction to help Ukraine against Russia (31% answer “no, not at all” or “no, rather not”), a figure which drops to 44% for the fight against climate change (compared to 40%). However, according to them, the theme of climate should be the priority of the European Union for the coming years (33%), ahead of the fight against poverty and inequalities (25%), the fight for a better future in Europe (24% ) and the limitation of immigration in Europe (24%), even if strong disparities exist depending on political affinities.

On a political level, precisely, the balance of power observed less than two weeks before the election is partly reflected among the youngest. The National Rally received 34% of voting intentions, a level similar to surveys carried out among people over 18 years old, with up to 54% support among young workers employed in lower socio-professional categories, such as employees or workers. But according to this survey, Valérie Hayer and her Renaissance list received 7.5% of voting intentions, or half as much as the latest surveys on the general population published by the various institutes. Disavowal is strongest among higher socio-professional categories (8%), traditional supporters of the Macronist camp.

According to the results of this survey, it is La France insoumise which comes in second position among young people, with 14% of voting intentions. Attractive among job seekers (14%), students (15%) and women (18%), it is ahead of Raphaël Glucksmann’s Socialist Party-Public Square list (12%), while the balance of power is reversed in surveys of the entire population. The Public Place MEP recorded his best score among the higher socio-professional categories (21%) and 18-21 year olds (14%).

In the same way, Marie Toussaint and Les Ecologistes-EELV seem to convince young people more than the rest of the population, since its list stands at 11%, and even 18% among 18-21 year olds, while the rest of the polls place it more around 5%, the threshold for sending elected officials to the European Parliament. The LR (4.5%), Reconquest (4.5%) and Communist Party (2.5%) lists do not cross this fateful threshold.

* Survey carried out from May 16 to 20, 2024, via the internet, using the quota method, among a representative sample of 1,165 people aged 18 to 29, in France.