Arab nations on Thursday suggested sending “international UN peacekeeping and protection forces” as part of a broad plan to resolve the conflict. But this project has, at this stage, little chance of succeeding.
Peacekeepers in Gaza and the West Bank? The Arab League, meeting in Bahrain on Thursday May 16, is proposing it, as part of a plan to put an end to the war between Israel and Hamas. While Tel Aviv has intensified its operations in Rafah, where more than a million displaced people are massed, the League is calling for “an international conference under the auspices of the UN” to resolve the conflict “based on the two-way solution States”. In the final communiqué of the summit, the Arab leaders also mentioned the deployment of “UN international protection and peacekeeping forces in the occupied Palestinian territories”while this two-state solution is implemented.
In November, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani had already raised the idea. “I think the UN can play a role as it is doing, with UNIFIL, between Hezbollah and Israel”, he said. With 10,000 men, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has been responsible, since 1978, for helping to maintain peace on the border between Israel and its neighbor. A presence which has not prevented the almost daily armed clashes between Hezbollah and the IDF in recent months.
The proposal for a similar UN mission in the Palestinian territories has, at this stage, little chance of succeeding. “There should already be peace to maintain. We do not intervene in the fighting”recalls the UN spokesperson, Farhan Haq, to the New York Times. The peacekeepers “do not impose peace”, their leader already explained to AFP in November. They intervene to protect civilians, if a ceasefire agreement has been reached, in order to “create the conditions for a political process to advance and lead to lasting peace”explained Jean-Pierre Lacroix.
The end of the fighting is also the first step in the plan put on the table by the Arab League, notes Romuald Sciora, essayist and director of the United States political and geostrategic observatory at Iris. “It calls first of all for an immediate ceasefire, then for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, for an end to the siege imposed on the Palestinian territory, for the organization of an international conference under the aegis of the UN, the recognition of a Palestinian state and finally, if all these conditions are met, the deployment of Blue Helmets until the two-state solution is effective.lists the researcher.
However, the prospect of a ceasefire in Gaza has once again become distant after the rejection of a draft agreement by Israel at the beginning of May. The Israeli offensive on Rafah, launched at the same time, “returns” discussions with Hamas, noted Qatar, one of the three mediators with Egypt and the United States. “At the moment we are almost at an impasse”lamented the Qatari Prime Minister on Tuesday May 14.
“At this stage, the Arab League plan has no chance of being implemented. It is highly unlikely that Israel will agree to an immediate ceasefire and, even if it does, it will refuse in the short term to withdraw its troops and end the siege of Gaza.”
Romuald Sciora, associate researcher at Irisat franceinfo
A Blue Helmet operation would also require the approval of the UN Security Council, where the United States has already several times vetoed draft resolutions condemning the offensive led by Tel Aviv. According to New York Timesa State Department spokesperson has already suggested that the White House would not support the deployment of UN forces, telling the press that “sending additional security forces” could jeopardize Israel’s goal of dismantling Hamas.
In any case, a United Nations intervention can only be organized with the agreement of Israel. “Lthe stakeholders [au conflit] must accept the presence of peacekeeping forces”, underlines the UN spokesperson, Farhan Haq, to the New York Times. “We are not intervening as an enemy or occupying force.” It is difficult to imagine the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, a fervent opponent of the creation of a Palestinian state, accepting a mission supposed to maintain peace until the implementation of the two-state solution.
“Israel currently has a very negative attitude towards the UN”, also notes Richard Gowan, United Nations specialist at the NGO Crisis Group. In recent months, Tel Aviv has accused employees of UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, of having collaborated with Hamas, without providing evidence to support its claims. “The Israelis have also been very critical of [la Finul]which they believe is not doing enough to control Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.he reports.
“It is not certain that the Israelis would trust the UN to maintain peace in the Gaza Strip.”
Richard Gowan, UN specialistat franceinfo
Even if the international community gave the green light, the deployment of peacekeepers would raise logistical questions. “Once the Security Council votes in favor of a peacekeeping operation, the UN Secretary-General is responsible for consulting with different member states to assemble a contingent of military”, details Romuald Sciora. The method of financing and the mission of this force must also be defined with the agreement of the Council. A process that usually takes “a lot of time”.
“If all the conditions were met, the deployment of a peacekeeping force could go very quickly, because it would be a priority of the UN”, believes on the contrary to know Richard Gowan. However, “the example of Mali has shown that UN forces are poorly equipped to deal with terrorist groupshe warns. If Hamas was defeated militarily but fighters remained capable of carrying out attacks, [les Casques bleus] could be very vulnerable.”
At this stage, the preconditions for a Blue Helmet operation in the Palestinian territories are far from being met. So why have Arab countries put this plan on the table? He “allows them to signal that they would be among the main troop contributors” in the event of deployment, analyzes Richard Gowan.
This proposal also marks a “important compromise” on the part of the Arab League, argues Romuald Sciora. “This is the first time that she has not made the recognition of a Palestinian state the prerequisite for any discussionnotes the researcher. This plan is credible, but several years from now, with another government at the head of Israel.”
“There is a bit of hypocrisy in this plan. It is not immediately feasible, but it is a gesture by Arab leaders towards their populations, very angry against the war in Gaza, to show that they can be united.”
Romuald Sciora, associate researcher at Irisat franceinfo
For Richard Gowan, this proposal also allows Arab countries to “challenge the Israeli plan for the future of Gaza”. Benjamin Netanyahu said he wanted Israel to retain some form of military control [sur l’enclave]with the possibility of carrying out operations there whenever he wishesdeciphers the expert. With this plan, the Arab League offers an alternative.”