Nearly 9,000 km from Nouméa, Beijing is carefully scrutinizing the Caledonian revolt

China is in fact one of the countries which are observing through binoculars the outbreak of violence which spares no island of New Caledonia. For several years, Beijing has been paying close attention to the political battle between loyalists and separatists in the hope of taking France’s place.

New Caledonia is a centerpiece in the Chinese government’s project of influence in the Indo-Pacific region, a target of choice. Beijing is obviously interested like everyone else in the nickel resources contained in the archipelago, between 20 and 30% of world reserves. But the second reason is perhaps even more crucial for Beijing.

In its naval battle with Washington, China is seeking to push its influence as far as possible into the Pacific to escape the encirclement of the United States and its allies, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and of course Australia. So by taking France’s place in New Caledonia, Beijing would find itself less than 2,000 km from the Australian coast, an obvious strategic advantage.

The Chinese government is convinced that by supporting the Caledonian separatists, that by helping the archipelago to free itself from its colonial ties, it would succeed in obtaining compensation. Beijing therefore deployed one of its most effective tools of influence, the infiltration of power, by creating the Sino-Caledonian friendship association chaired by the former chief of staff of the independence leader Kanak, Roch Wamytan. China maneuvered finely, methodically. The Chinese ambassador to France even spent a week taking inventory of the needs of the archipelago with New Caledonian elected officials, all this at the most opportune moment, in 2017, just before the organization of the three self-determination referendums. of 2018, 2020 and 2021.

But the Chinese efforts did not really pay off since the Caledonians voted no to independence. Suspicions of Chinese interference were such in 2018 that the French government clearly took a position for the loyalist camp and did not respect its duty of impartiality imposed by the Noumea Accords. Faced with Beijing’s gentle and insidious manipulation, Paris has lost its cool and is trying to impose its method by reforming the electoral body. This is the conviction of the Caledonian separatists. The response is violent and Beijing is patient in silence.