the situation in Moldova and North Macedonia

Although the European Union fears the political effects of Russian influence, negotiations with the Eastern European countries, candidates for membership, are progressing very slowly. Our correspondents on site describe the situation.

Twenty years after the enlargement of the EU towards formerly communist Eastern countries, many candidate countries are still waiting for negotiations to continue. Facing economic and political problems, Ukraine and Moldova are the countries best placed to join the European Union, and discussions are at a standstill with Turkey. Apart from these countries, six others are officially candidates: Georgia and the Balkan countries, which make up Albania, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Montenegro.

Recently, North Macedonia has caused some concern among European diplomats, with the return to power of the historically pro-Russian conservative party. And Moldova, in the middle of an election year, has long maintained good diplomatic and economic relations with Moscow. As 2024 marks the start of the country’s negotiations with the EU, it is questionable whether Moldova is ready to cut ties with Russia.

In Moldova, the population, part of which is Russian-speaking, is very divided

In Moldova, a former Soviet republic, the presidential election next October will be accompanied by a referendum to include the process of joining the EU in the constitution. The situation is delicate for President Maia Sandu, who openly supports Ukraine and who has made membership of the European Union the flagship project of her mandate, which she wishes to see renewed at the end of the year. On the diplomatic level, Moldova continues its rapprochement with the European Union. She and her Minister of Foreign Affairs are increasing visits to Europe and the United States to strengthen political, financial and military relations with the West. In March Moldova expelled a Russian diplomat, after the Russian election was held in the Transnistria region.

But on the economic level, the situation remains ambivalent. Some regions, such as Gagauzia, still consider Russia a major economic partner. And Moldova still depends on Russian gas. It has diversified its direct sources of gas supply, but its electricity is still mainly produced by a factory in Transnistria via gas delivered by Moscow.

Transnistria, a pro-Russian region led by separatist authorities, remains a question mark. The Moldovan government says it is actively working to reintegrate Transnistria peacefully. Initially, it involves economic reintegration, by harmonizing, for example, customs rules, but ultimately the objective of the central authority would be to regain legal and administrative control of the region. Maia Sandu wants this reintegration to take place before the country joins the European Union, possibly by 2030.

It should be noted that Transnistria exports the majority of its products to the European Union, and not to Russia. However, political and economic support from Moscow is holding back the resolution of this conflict which has been frozen for more than 30 years. The rapprochement between Moldova and the European Union obviously does not please Vladimir Putin. Russia is therefore very critical of the current government. To exercise its influence, however, it can count on political parties, including those of the fugitive oligarch Ilan Sor, openly pro-Russian. Personalities affiliated with Ilan Sor, such as the governor of Gagauzia Evghenia Gutul, regularly visit Moscow, where a new coalition of opposition parties was formed a few weeks ago. This internal political pressure represents a real obstacle for Maia Sandu today, even if, for the moment, the polls are still favorable to her.

In North Macedonia, the return of the conservative party raises some doubts

When she took office last Sunday, the new Macedonian president, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, presented herself as the president of Macedonia, and not of North Macedonia, the official name of this country of two million inhabitants. These comments aroused the anger of the Greek neighbor, since they call into question a historic agreement which had been reached to put an end to an endless dispute around the heritage of ancient Macedonia. In Brussels, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, reminded the new Macedonian authorities that it was “primordial” that they “respect their commitments” so that the country continues its path towards membership of the European Union.

The double election which took place last week, presidential and legislative, saw the conservative party largely beat the social democrats. The very nationalist campaign of the winners was based around frustrations linked to the slowness of the integration process. In 2019, Emmanuel Macron vetoed the simple opening of negotiations. This caused a strong lack of understanding in Macedonian society and tarnished the image of the EU. Especially since the Bulgarian neighbor has also blocked the integration process. Thus, pro-European sentiment, which was more than 80% 5 years ago, has fallen to 65% today. When in government in the 2010s, the nationalist right party adopted a eurosceptic and pro-Russian line. Back in power, Macedonian conservatives are now showing their attachment to Europe and NATO, which the country joined in 2020. But while Russia is accused of leading disinformation campaigns, we will have to see if the disputes coming nationalists with Greek and Bulgarian neighbors will not increase anti-European sentiment in the country.