The Russian offensive around Kharkiv, which began a few days ago, probably does not aim to take Ukraine’s second city but to pose a strategic dilemma for kyiv, while the arrival of good weather favors major maneuvers in ground.
Around thirty villages in northeastern Ukraine were under fire from Russia on Monday, which occupied dozens of km2 of territory in a few days in the north of the country.
But according to Western analysts contacted by AFP, Russia does not have the immediate objective of conquering the industrial metropolis.
In this area, “the Russian force is insufficient in volume to take a city the size of Kharkiv,” assures Mick Ryan, retired Australian general, on X (ex-Twitter).
“It may, however, pose an additional risk of artillery strikes,” he adds, possibly describing “one of the most difficult moments for Ukraine in this war.”
Since February 2022, Russia has been waging a war of attrition, in terms of men, materials, opinions and kyiv’s allies. And it benefits from a quantitative military superiority that is all the more significant since the $61 billion in exceptional American aid to Ukraine was only released in April, after months of blockage in Washington.
The Ukrainians “were forced to ration their shells and war materials for months”, thus increasing their losses, underlines for AFP Ivan Klyszcz, of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), in Estonia.
Shortened logistics lines
The American promise “means that this rationing must no longer be as rigorous […]but kyiv must now continue to retain as much territory as possible.”
After the failure of the Ukrainian offensive last summer, and with the end of winter and the “rasputitsa”, a period of melting snow where the plains of the country are covered in mud difficult to cross, the Russia has indeed regained the initiative.
And it can afford strong losses, explains Pierre Razoux, academic director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES). “Moscow knows that it has a human reservoir and an industrial capacity much greater than Ukraine. »
Moscow also says it wants to create a “buffer zone” to protect the Russian region of Belgorod, which is very regularly targeted. And benefits from a major logistical advantage in this border region.
“The Russians can mobilize air support, drones and artillery, firing from their territory, therefore with shortened logistical lines and under air superiority,” notes Pierre Razoux. “They are in an optimal position. »
On the other hand, Ukraine will have to respond to a fundamental strategic dilemma. It “is obliged to defend the front line, but also strategic points that it cannot lose”, in particular the country’s major cities and the roads which connect them to the Romanian and Polish borders, he says. to be worth. “What is more important, defending a key objective or holding the front line? »
Strategic dilemma
Taking on both objectives seems out of reach for kyiv. “And it’s both a military and a political problem,” emphasizes Mick Ryan. “If the Ukrainians decide to hold the ground at all costs, they will lose even more of a smaller and smaller army. If they choose to preserve their army, they will have to give up ground. »
It will take weeks to know whether the Russians make a major advance in the north, let alone determine whether they gain a strategic advantage elsewhere on the front.
Ivan Klyszcz does not see “fundamental change” in Russian strategy: “conquering the entire Donbass region seems to be its biggest priority at this stage”.
On his blog, retired French general and researcher Olivier Kempf points out that the very recent Russian advance “testifies to weak initial resistance”, because kyiv did not want to “consume too many forces in salients that are difficult to defend”.
For him, it is “now that we will observe the intentions and capabilities of one or the other”, the ground gained in three days being “not necessarily significant”.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin certainly intends to make an impression, including among kyiv’s allies, as the American presidential election in November looms and the possible return to power of Donald Trump, reluctant to continue aid to Ukraine.
“If Ukraine got down on one knee before the election, it would demonstrate to Trump that Joe Biden is a loser who chose the wrong horse,” assures Pierre Razoux.