(New York) Since 1976, each US presidential election has been preceded by at least two televised debates between the main candidates. Over time, the media – and voters – have come to believe that these meetings are part of an immutable tradition. However, in 2024, they could be deprived of it.
For what ? The reasons are numerous. Let’s start with the most obvious: Donald Trump. The former president has already demonstrated that his non-compliance with norms extended to the debates. He refused to participate in the third face-to-face of 2020 under the pretext that it was virtual (he had just tested positive for COVID-19). And he skipped all the debates during the 2024 Republican primaries.
Of course, Donald Trump is repeating these days that he is ready to debate with Joe Biden “anytime and anywhere”. Let’s forget about the fact that he won’t be able to do this during the long hours he will have to spend in the courtroom where his trial is taking place in New York in connection with the Stormy Daniels affair.
The fact is that not everything Donald Trump says is gospel. Susan Drucker, a political scientist at Hofstra University on Long Island and a specialist in presidential debates, compares the former president’s statements about the debates to those he makes before or during his trials.
He always says: “I want to testify, don’t hold me back.” But he’s waiting for his lawyers to say, ”Don’t be stupid, don’t testify.” I think something similar is happening with the proceedings.
Susan Drucker, political scientist at Hofstra University
The Republican National Committee represents another obstacle. In 2022, this organization which manages the Grand Old Party decided to no longer participate in the clashes organized by the Commission on the presidential debates after denouncing Chris Wallace, one of the moderators.
Never mind: the Commission has already announced the holding of three presidential debates in 2024. The first is scheduled for September 16 in Texas, the second on September 1er October in Virginia and the third on October 9 in Utah.
Joe Biden has his own reservations. Asked about his possible participation in the presidential debates, he replied, referring to Donald Trump: “It depends on his behavior. »
A “fucking sick person”
The president has undoubtedly not forgotten his experience during the first presidential debate of 2020, the one where his rival kept interrupting him, so much so that he ended up exclaiming, in an exasperated tone : “Are you going to shut up? »
But Joe Biden’s reservations may run deeper. Because Donald Trump is not only rough-hewn. He is the subject of four criminal cases, two of which relate to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. In Joe Biden’s eyes, he represents not only a threat to democracy, but also an affront to human kind (“What a fucking sick person,” he said to those around him about the former president).
How can he want to argue with such a man?
Being on the same stage as Donald Trump is a way of legitimizing or normalizing the abnormal. But I think Trump would be more likely to refuse to participate in a debate than Biden.
Susan Drucker, political scientist at Hofstra University
Because Biden is more respectful of standards, according to her. And he undoubtedly knows that voters still have doubts about his cognitive abilities (“He cannot [participer à des débats] because he can’t speak,” Donald Trump said recently).
However, David Frum, a conservative anti-Trump commentator, advises Joe Biden to be the one to say no to presidential debates that pit him against a man he considers a fomenter of insurrection.
“Many institutions of American life have habits and motivations that lead them to treat Trump’s attempted coup as normal politics,” David Frum wrote last week in the magazine The Atlantic. “Television and other mass media have worse habits and motivations than most of these institutions. But President Biden need not wallow in it. »
David Frum wrote his article after the publication of a letter signed by 12 media organizations and urging Joe Biden and Donald Trump to commit to participating in presidential debates in 2024.
“If there is one thing Americans can agree on in this divisive time, it is that the stakes in this election are exceptionally high,” said the organizations, including ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and Fox. “In this context, there is no substitute for candidates debating among themselves and in front of the American people their vision for the future of our nation. »
As David Frum reminds us, these media are not disinterested. The debates drive up audience ratings at a time when high television events are increasingly rare.
The question remains: will there be presidential debates in 2024?
“I have my doubts,” responds Susan Drucker, who observed presidential debates on the Hofstra University campus in 2008, 2012 and 2016.
“I think the perception of the debates is that it is a ritual that we can count on and that is part of the presidential cycle. So it is surprising to some that this might not happen. »
According to her, the conviction of Donald Trump in New York could resolve the matter.
“If he is convicted of a crime, I think Biden will be uniquely positioned to say that it is not appropriate for the President of the United States to share the stage with a convicted felon who attempted to deceive the American people in a previous election. »
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