It would be completely exceptional for a party forming a majority government to find itself in third place in voting intentions less than two years after being elected.
If the polls had not been so rare, we might perhaps have been able to observe this phenomenon at the end of the 1960s. In 1966, the National Union had managed to form a majority government with seven points less than the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ). This had nothing to do with the “strong mandate” obtained by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in October 2022. The euphoria of the Expo had not prevented the unemployment rate from doubling, and the linguistic crisis of Saint-Léonard had seriously shaken the government of Daniel Johnson.
Tuesday morning, the Liberals had to pinch themselves to make sure they weren’t dreaming when they saw that Pallas Data gave them second place, ahead of the CAQ, with 23% of voting intentions. They must still be surprised by this figure, as the PLQ only received 10% of the French-speaking votes, but above all wonder what they could have done to deserve such a rise. For the moment, we are only interested in them to wonder if they will succeed in preventing Denis Coderre from taking over the chiefdom.
A few hours later, a Léger survey carried out at the same time brought them back to earth. The PLQ’s time may come, but it is premature to conclude that the prospect of another referendum and the arrival of a new leader will necessarily give it wings and make it the champion of Canadian unity again.
Having finally hit the bottom would certainly be good news for the CAQ. It’s hard to imagine how the Legault government could be more inconsistent than over the past year, but who knows? Nothing is impossible in politics. It would be worrying if the slight increase in popularity of the Prime Minister himself was due to his greater discretion. We won’t be able to muzzle him during the election campaign, if he’s still there.
As Justin Trudeau would say, voters “don’t care” who is responsible for the decrepitude of the health and education networks, but they generally have the reflex to punish whoever is in power and whose promises of recovery never seems to happen. Even this “government of accountants” seems to have lost control of public finances.
The floor is a relative concept in politics. We sometimes see it collapse under the feet of those who thought it was solid. The Caquists now have good hope of getting back on track. In 1970, the survivors of the National Union probably also thought that after losing more than two thirds of its seats, it could only bounce back. Three years later, she had completely disappeared from the National Assembly.
For their part, the PQ were relieved to see that the remarks made by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon at the Drummondville national council, which were presented as a fear campaign, did not have a negative effect on the intentions of vote of his party, even if only 33% of those questioned by Léger share his dark vision of the history of Quebec.
Even if the Parti Québécois (PQ) has reached a ceiling, there is clearly a hard core which, worried about the survival of French, could be enough to elect a PQ government despite its promise to hold a referendum in a first mandate, but he will obviously have to develop a more positive argument to have a chance of making the Yes vote triumph.
*****
Québec solidaire (QS) is the big loser in this duo of polls. Last November’s congress was seen as a new start, particularly in the regions. Of course, Rome was not built in a day. We could not expect a spectacular breakthrough in the space of a few months, but still not a setback.
It would undoubtedly be unfair to hold Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois responsible, but it is clear that he is no longer the Prime Minister’s main interlocutor. In the National Assembly, he remains equal to himself, but he has been eclipsed by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who nevertheless benefits from less speaking time.
Not so long ago, the slightest lapse in language from the QS co-spokesperson made the news. We are now interested in the mood swings of the PQ leader and his clashes with Mr. Legault.
But if the CAQ is at the bottom, while the PQ is at the ceiling and the PLQ is standing still, where the hell are the solidarity votes going to hide?