Although Iran believes its Saturday night attack on Israel was carried out in response to a strike that destroyed its consulate in Damascus, can Tel Aviv be expected to attack Tehran in return?
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In an interview with LCN, the member associated with the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, Guillaume Lavoie, indicates that although no possibility has yet been ruled out, certain factors mean that Israel could see the interception of almost all of the projectiles sent by Iran as a victory in itself.
“All scenarios are within the realm of possibilities,” he said. To have been able to stop an attack of this type with the help of allies allows Iran to pretend that they had a victory, which is what it was looking for. The fact that there is no response on the ground as we speak is already in context a small victory against the conflagration.”
“The fact that in the rain of drones, there was no damage on Israeli soil, although there is a little 7-year-old girl fighting for her life, damage in practically limited proportions, that adds weight to the camp in the hope that things could calm down,” he adds.
Following the attack, many also fear a conflagration in the region.
Mr. Lavoie believes that political pressure will have a key role going forward.
“Iran is a bit on its own,” he says. There are many people who have nothing to gain from a conflagration, starting with some important partners of Iran like China. The pressure will be extraordinarily strong. The camp calling for calm remains in the vast majority, starting with the United States, which is using last night’s success as a reason not to need an excessive response.”
The expert does not doubt Israel’s ability to wage its war against Hamas and to deploy a strike force also on the Iranian front if it wishes.
“It is a significant pressure, but you should know that Israel, despite being taken by surprise by the attacks of October 7, Israel still lives in a context where they know that several of their neighbors want their destruction” , he explains.
“The majority of the active population is actively part of the armed forces, or otherwise in the reserves,” he continues. We have a small state with oversized military resources and allies, starting with Great Britain, or even France, or even the United States, on a military level, which are extremely important and imposing.
However, the complexity of the situation in this region of the world brings a lot of uncertainty.
“I think we can have hope, but to imagine that there cannot be any slippage is rather naive,” maintains the expert.
Watch the full interview in the video above