“The Israelis claim victory, but Tehran made a show of force,” underlines a geopolitics specialist

“Everything seems to call for de-escalation but we cannot be sure,” explains Sunday on franceinfo Héloïse Fayet, researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the French Institute of International Relations, specialist in Iranian geopolitics.

After the firing of missiles and the sending of drones into Israel carried out last night by Iran, Héloïse Fayet, researcher at Ifri, discusses the different possible scenarios on Sunday April 14 on franceinfo.

Israel “claims victory because there was no damage on its soil”. Iran, for its part, said in a statement to the UN that this attack was a response to the deadly April 1 strike on its consulate in Syria and “that the incident is now closed”. But according to the researcher, a question arises: will the Israelis respond to this attack again? “and potentially fuel a cycle of escalation?”

>> Iran strikes on Israel: follow the development of the situation in our live stream

The sending of several hundred drones and missiles, two weeks after the death of seven Revolutionary Guards, including two generals of the Al-Quds Force, was a way of instilling fear without calling for war against Israel, according to Héloïse Fayet. “The Iranians sent a lot of messages” but an attack seemed inevitable for the country to maintain its “internal credibility [avec les autres pays du Proche-Orient] and with its allies. Iran made a show of force, but with enough precaution in advance for Israel and its allies to succeed in destroying almost all of it. [des drones].”

A risk of escalation

The only question mark is whether Israel will participate in this game and stop there, or whether the country will continue to escalate violence. “Israel knows very well that the Iranians have repeatedly threatened to accelerate their nuclear program if ever there are strikes against their territory, and even more strikes against their nuclear sites. We know that Israel is probably waiting for a pretext to strike Iranian nuclear sites, will this be the pretext ? We must hope that this is not the case.”

Israel has other ways to reassert its strength, according to the researcher: “The response can also be diplomatic”. The two countries can also “return to the famous gray zones, in the asymmetrical war that was being played out between Iran and Israel until then with, for example, Israeli cyberattacks carried out against sensitive Iranian sites.”

The United States now has a role to play, as does the international community, continues Héloïse Fayet. “In a situation like this, it is good to show, at least on paper, that the international community continues to be able to come together even if, ultimately, the crisis could be resolved with sufficient American pressure on Israel” to avoid aftershocks and escalation. Discussions between the United States and Iran would also be a good thing according to her: “A direct dialogue between the United States and Iran is something that is already happening quietly for the nuclear program.”