disaffection of the traditional electorate, rise of the Islamists, the reasons for the failure of the AKP

After the failure of the AKP, the presidential party, in the municipal elections in Turkey, franceinfo analyzes the reasons for such a crushing defeat.

In Turkey, it is time for analysis in the ranks of the AKP after the defeat of the government party in the municipal elections on Sunday March 31. Its rival, the social-democratic CHP party, won 14 of Turkey’s 30 major cities, including Istanbul and Ankara, and captured long-standing strongholds of the AKP, notably in Anatolia. The day after this electoral slap, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan summoned his party to learn the lessons of a historic failure.

Behind this defeat of Erdogan’s AKP, there is first of all the disaffection of its traditional voters. Crushed by the economic crisis which continues to grow with inflation at almost 70% in March, many therefore voted “with their feet” by refusing to go to the polls. The last municipal elections showed the lowest participation rate since 2004. Many of the president’s supporters felt betrayed and among them, retirees who represent 8 of the 61 million voters in Turkey. They are losers in Turkish society with a basic pension of 10 000 pounds (around 300 euros), below the poverty line, when the minimum wage in Türkiye is 17 000 pounds.

Pensioners sanctioned the AKP

In Kadiköy, on the Asian side of the Bosphorus, retirees enjoy the sun while listening to a street musician. Free fun. Many survive on a pension lower than the poverty line, a pension which the government has not increased despite its promises. An elderly couple confides : “Before we came to Kadiköy, we drank our raki or our beer, we ate our fish twice a week. Now it’s impossible.” The couple’s wife opens a bag and confides : “It’s been two years since he gave me a gift and today he just gave me this shawl. I thank him for it.”

Nearby, Bedri holds opposition leaflets in his hands. He adds : “The situation of retirees is deplorable. I am 93 years old so I have seen Presidents of the Republic pass by, and yet I have never experienced such a bad situation ! We can’t even put cheese or olives on the iftar table (breaking the fast) anymore, let alone dates!” In a country where elders are respected, the shock is severe. “Before, when we retiredsays Mustafa Durna, spokesperson for the Union of All Pensioners, with the bonuses we could buy a house, a car, or when we had children, we could pay for their marriage and dowry. Today, this is no longer possible.”

The rise of the Islamist party Yeniden Refah

Another reason for the AKP’s defeat: the emergence of a very active Islamist party on the ground during this campaign. Yeniden Refah Partisi – or the New Prosperity Party -, led by Fatih Erbakan, emerged as the third man in this election by winning some 6.19% of the vote. He denounced the corruption in force under Erdogan, demanded the doubling of retirees’ pensions and denounced the maintenance of trade between Turkey and Israel at the time of the war in Gaza. So many arguments which struck a chord with traditional AKP voters, dissatisfied with the management of President Erdogan.

Franceinfo followed the Islamist party during their campaign in the Catalca district, around sixty kilometers from the center of Istanbul. Mehmet Altinöz, Yeniden Refah’s candidate for the metropolis then goes door to door. “Every time we entered a store, we had new membershe says with a broad smile. Throughout Turkey we have representatives and 7 000 new members join us every day. We have just broken a world record. We’re going to enter the Guinness World Records.” With already more than half a million members, the party is riding the economic crisis in particular. Ümit and Dilber will vote for him. “We voted for Erdogan in the presidential elections, I’ll be damned if I do it again”says Ümit. “He betrayed us”adds his wife.

“A retiree earns 10 000 pounds per month. There are five of us at home, just the bread costs us 3 000 pounds per month and our rent is 15 000 pounds. How do you expect us to support the AKP?”

Ümit, Yeniden Refah party voter

at franceinfo

Yeniden Refah also campaigns on probity, denouncing government corruption. This is what attracted Elif, a young communicator. “In institutions, nothing works. The piston system is in full swing everywhereshe denounces. Young people have lost all hope, they no longer have confidence. We want change.“ The party also offers an alternative to all conservative Muslim voters dissatisfied with the AKP who could not bring themselves to vote for the secular and republican opposition. “VSIt’s been at least five years since I no longer recognized myself in the ideas of the AKP, Elif explains. There was no other option, we had no choice. Now we have the New Prosperity Party representing us as Muslims.”

To appeal widely, the party avoids putting forward its more controversial positions. “The program of the New Prosperity Party is much more conservative than that of the AKPanalyzes political scientist Berk Esen. He finds that the AKP is not being conservative enough on LGBT people, women, alimony. He embodies the agenda of conservative male voters.” Yeniden Refah also lashes out against trade with Israel, asking the president to break diplomatic relations with the Hebrew state. Third party in the country in the last municipal elections, the Islamist party is already preparing for the next presidential election.

The hope of reconciliation in a very polarized society

It is in Istanbul, which Erdogan had sworn to take over from the CHP, that the presidential party recorded its most bitter failure. Beyoglu is one of the districts of Istanbul which fell into the fold of the CHP. Located on the European side, a very touristy district, Beyoglu is known for its Taksim Square, its Galata Tower and Gezi Park, scene of a revolt harshly repressed by the government in 2013. Yönten is sitting on a café terrace. “Today, I woke up in a kind of serenitysays this psychotherapist with a broad smile. I hope that other things will follow, that there will be a change in Turkish society which is so polarized. I hope now that this kind of war between us has ended.”

On the evening of his re-election, Mayor Imamoglu launched a call for reconciliation for all in Turkey : Kurds and Alevis, Sunnis and Armenians. A little further up, on Taksim Square, Dindu pulls out his shopping bag and grimaces under his veil. She admits to having voted for the president’s party but repents of it. “I am 71 years oldshe whispers. I’ve seen all the colors, but a life so dear, I’ve never seen that before this year. ‘He’ let prices soar. You go to the store, today it costs 3 books and tomorrow 5 books. ‘He’ deceived us. The God sees all this. And it’s over, now his political life is over. Bye Bye.” Anger is palpable in the ranks of many CHP voters, some of whom are calling for early elections.