This text is part of the special Real Estate section
A rental market that is tightening, rents and property prices skyrocketing. The dynamic has taken hold in Quebec as in Canada, limiting access to housing for several groups. At the Urbanization Culture Society Center of the National Institute of Scientific Research (INRS), researcher Nick Revington is studying the effects on young adults.
The housing crisis is not weakening in the country which saw the vacancy rate for rental housing drop to 1.5% in 2023, according to the 2024 rental market report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). In urban centers in Quebec (more than 10,000 inhabitants), government data indicates that this rate fell to 1.3% over the last year. This is its lowest level in 20 years.
This situation is pushing up rents, particularly those of apartments which increased by approximately 12% nationally and by 9% in the province between February 2023 and 2024, according to the latest housing report from Rentals.ca.
However, it is especially young people who are most likely to rent accommodation. Data from the 2021 census thus made it possible to establish that 63% of people aged 15 to 29 who provide support for their household are tenants (compared to 33% for the national average). “This situation can make this group more vulnerable during sudden changes in the housing and rental market,” underlines a Statistics Canada survey released last fall.
Students, a precarious group
Because they have limited income, students are particularly vulnerable to the housing crisis. And the thinning is not for tomorrow, according to Nick Revington. “I think that unfortunately things will tighten further before becoming more flexible,” warns the professor, who believes that the measures put in place at all levels of power are not sufficient to improve students’ access to housing.
In its 2024 budget presented on March 12, the Quebec government plans in particular $7.5 million over five years to increase the number of housing for students and maintain the real estate stock. “I think this small amount is intended to encourage the private sector to invest. But I have little hope that this will have a big impact on affordability, as private student accommodation is often high-end, so on average more expensive than the private rental market. »
At the federal level, the professor welcomes the low-cost loan program to post-secondary institutions, NPOs and private developers who are thus encouraged to build student residences starting this fall. “It’s not the solution as such, but it’s definitely a step in the right direction. »
Another interesting avenue that Mr. Revington would like to see more supported by the public authorities: the construction of housing by social economy companies whose financing model allows rents to escape speculation. Expanding this type of offer could be especially relevant since, according to the professor, students are victims of discrimination in the residential sectors of certain cities in Canada. “We see a lot of effort in urban planning rules to limit development possibilities — for example, the conversion of a single-family house into a duplex.” According to him, these measures reduce the supply of housing for this population, with the aim of preventing it from causing nuisances to communities, such as noise and lack of housing maintenance.
As for the two-year cap on study permits, which brings the number of foreign students accepted into Canada to 360,000 this year (a drop of 35% compared to 2023), the measure misses the problem, estimates the teacher. “I don’t think it will have much effect, because the lack of affordable housing is linked to all kinds of other problems. »
Difficult access to the property
Among these problems, he mentions the culture surrounding access to property. “The idea today is that you need to have a house that will increase in value so that this asset can finance retirement or allow you to pass on assets to your children. But this vision is completely contradictory to that of maintaining housing affordability in general. » In order to counter the trend, the researcher calls in particular for the improvement of retirement systems, so that enjoying a decent quality of life after leaving a professional career is not conditional on the purchase of a home.
In the meantime, property prices are climbing (+7.6% in Canada between 2023 and 2024), and the income required to qualify for a mortgage for an average-priced home was $141,857 last year. in Canada, according to mortgage lender Nesto. In Quebec, this amount was on average $97,462. The proportion of young adults who can access it is therefore limited. “It will mainly concern those who have a very high income, but also those who have family or supporters who can help them. »
More social housing
The needs are dire. Last September, CMHC estimated that Canada would need nearly 3.5 million housing units in addition to those already under construction to restore affordability by 2023, including 860,000 in Quebec.
For Nick Revington, what is needed to regain and preserve affordability, particularly for young people, is to build social housing. “Really a lot,” he insists. “Not everyone likes to hear it, but it’s the reality. This will not only offer affordable rents, but also reduce pressure on the private market, and thereby reduce rents.
For this reason, the researcher believes that the 2024 Quebec budget — which does not provide for new investment for this type of housing — demonstrates that the government is not taking the housing crisis seriously.
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