Will François Legault leave politics or not before the October 2026 elections? Seeing the spectacular erosion of the popularity of the CAQ and the Prime Minister over the past year, we have to ask the question.
The latest Léger/Le Journal poll is brutal. At 22% support in Quebec, support for the CAQ since the last election has almost halved. At 64%, the dissatisfaction rate also remains very high.
At the antipodes, now in majority territory, the Parti Québécois garners 34% support, including 42% among French speakers. Obviously, in politics, everything can change in two years. As proof, the unexpected rise of the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
However, since the abandonment of 3e link last spring, followed by a series of poorly put together files and a budget judged harshly by 58% of voters, the disenchantment with the CAQ is embedded in the decor.
When we add to this the deterioration of public services, the inaction against the housing crisis and the disappointing results of his provincial autonomy, the time nevertheless begins to run out for the Prime Minister.
The worst mistake
The extent of the fall is such that the worst mistake in the CAQ ranks would be to conclude that it was a simple passing storm, an unfair trial, the classic fault of the media or poor communication strategies.
The problem goes deeper. Once the eclipse of the pandemic ended, three essential elements were broken between Mr. Legault and his electorate: trust, affection and the hope of better public services.
Result: a credible alternative having materialized with PSPP, more and more CAQ voters who were formerly PQ voters – whether or not they want a possible referendum – are returning to the fold.
For the CAQ, until now, this bloodletting is unforgiving. Will François Legault despite everything succeed in finding his lost rudder? Quebecers will know it by 2026.
On Friday, I will talk to you about Mr. Yves Michaud, a man with a heart and a great lover of Quebec, who died at the age of 94. Rest in peace.