Status quo, quarantine, attack… After the elections in Taiwan, what does the Chinese president intend to do towards the island?

Lai Ching-Te won the last presidential election in Taiwan. His party, the PTP (Progressive Democratic Party) is reputed to be “autonomist”, which greatly displeases China.

The result of the elections in Taiwan on January 13 is a setback for China. She hoped for the victory of the Kuomitang party, more favorable to Beijing, but it was Laï Ching-Te, of the Progressive Democratic Party, reputed to be more autonomist, who emerged victorious. The message sent to China is that despite intimidation, the Taiwanese refuse the reunification desired by Xi Jinping.

However, the Chinese president reaffirmed it during from his New Year’s speech: “All Chinese people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common goal and share the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” But only 2.5% of residents say they are “Chinese” today, compared to a quarter of them in 1995, while 62% now say they are “Taiwanese”, according to a survey by the National Chengchi University in Taipei. (in English).

Independence, the taboo word

Disinformation spread during the presidential campaign failed to influence the vote. Chinese propaganda has proven unproductive in this deeply democratic country. Taiwan is the eighth most democratic system in the world, according to a ranking by The Economist . France is in 22nd place.

But given these results, how will China change its policy? Several scenarios are emerging. Despite Chinese pressure, the economy is prosperous and benefits both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Beyond semiconductors, the island is the leading supplier of intermediate goods that Chinese industry absolutely needs. The status quo is therefore beneficial for both countries, as Jacques Gravereau, founder of the HEC Eurasia Institute and author of Taiwan, a Chinese obsession (Hémisphères editions).

“The status quo is a word that is quite convenient for Taiwanese politicians and for international diplomats. Because during this time, we are not talking about sovereignty, we are not talking about a word which is absolutely taboo: the word independence.”

Jacques Gravereau

author of “Taiwan, a Chinese obsession”

The other option for the Chinese government is maritime quarantine. This would make it possible to take control of the maritime and air approaches to Taiwan. The objective being to deprive Taiwan of control of its flows, without formally interrupting them. “We can imagine, as they already did in 1995, that the Chinese apply a sort of quarantine on shipsdevelops Jacques Gravereau. To hinder maritime and air traffic in this area of ​​the world is to place a huge grain of sand on all the chains of globalization.”

This option would bother China, which is the world’s largest exporter, because there would be economic sanctions against it. And this would also have consequences for Europeans, because they are the main importers of Chinese products, according to the expert.

A massive military campaign?

Ian Easton, an American researcher from the Project 2049 institute, analyzed internal documents from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) detailing planned operations. It is written there that “PLA officers are warned that only a massive and masterful military campaign will allow them to take Taiwan, that the operation will be extremely difficult and that a prolonged and bloody fight is expected.”

“Can China attack, carry out a massive amphibious attack on Taiwan? It would be a massacre anyway, because an amphibious attack is always very complicated.”

Jacques Gravereau

author of “Taiwan, a Chinese obsession”

The expert specifies that if in an extreme case, the Chinese attack fleet is not blocked by Taiwanese missiles and the PLA manages to set foot on Taiwan, the Taiwanese army alone would not be able to resist on the long term.

According to Jacques Gravereau, based on the latest war simulation exercises, “if the United States joined the dance, China would not be able to establish itself in the long term.” “It would be a massacre for everyone, including the Americans,” he concludes.