The ex-president crushed the competition during the Republican primaries. But to win the election in November, he will need to win over voters who don’t yet support him, inside and outside his party.
“I would like to invite all the supporters of Nikki Haley to join the greatest movement in our nation’s history.” Donald Trump waited just minutes after his latest Republican primary opponent announced “to suspend” his campaign, Wednesday March 6, to send this message to the supporters of his ultimate rival.
The former president of the United States, now the sole contender for the Republican Party nomination, reached the threshold of 1 215 delegates necessary to be officially designated candidate for the presidential election, Tuesday 12 March. If he easily swept aside the competition, a major challenge awaits him between now and the November 5 vote : try to unite beyond your usual supporters, or even your camp.
As the United States heads towards a new duel between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the billionaire leaves with an advantage. “He has an extremely loyal and significant base, around 30 to 35% of voters, according to estimatesunderlines Ludivine Gilli, historian and director of the North America Observatory at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. But that’s not enough to get elected.” Especially since the “presidential election of 2024 promises to be very close”, says Hans Noel, professor of public affairs at Georgetown University. In this context, “the least [vote] can count”.
The challenge of moderating your speech
“Among the Republicans, there are MAGA”supporters of the ex-president, “those who say ‘never Trump’ and those who will vote ‘maybe Trump'”summarizes Ludividine Gilli. Which category do Nikki Haley voters fall into? ? If the exit polls carried out during “Super Tuesday” are to be believed, they could well be among the “never Trump”. In Virginia, California and North Carolina, nearly 70% of voters who voted for Nikki Haley said they were not sure whether they would vote for the Republican Party candidate in November, Politico reports.
:quality(50)/2024/03/08/000-34kv9pu-65eaebe197491748160602.jpg)
By withdrawing from the race, the former governor of South Carolina did not seek to help her opponent. “He It is now up to Donald Trump to deserve the votes of those, inside and outside our party, who did not support him.”, said Nikki Haley, without calling for people to vote for him. Will Donald Trump succeed in seducing these Republican voters? ? Not sure. The conservatives that the billionaire bristles at “turned towards Nikki Haley not out of support, but out of rejection”, analyzes Ludivine Gilli. A voting instruction would therefore not have “not necessarily important to them”.
“Donald Trump convinced his base with radical and provocative speeches. But [ce discours] is a repellent for a large number of voters.”
Ludivine Gilli, historianat franceinfo
The ex-president must now “convince” the Americans, beyond its hard core of voters, “to vote for him, or at least not to vote for Biden”explains Ludivine Gilli. In this quest for support, the “temperament” of Donald Trump could work against him, judges the historian. “I don’t see him moderating his speech enough to reach out to Nikki Haley’s voters”she explains.
As proof, the invitation made to the supporters of his rival to join his camp. The message posted on his Truth Social network, Wednesday March 6, begins with an attack against his opponent in capital letters. “Nikki Haley was CRUSHED last night, in record time”, mocked the ex-president. Joe Biden greeted the “courage” of the ex-governor before ensuring that the voters of the elected Republican had “a place in [sa] campaign”.
:quality(50)/2024/03/08/063-2055793933-65eae93605e9c018458126.jpg)
The sociology of Nikki Haley’s electorate is not favorable to the tempestuous billionaire. The candidate achieved her best scores in the zones “more educated, wealthier, urban or suburban”notes Hans Noel. And during the open Republican primaries, where voting is not reserved only for party members, “the independents mobilized strongly to prevent [Donald Trump] to win”, also remarks Ludivine Gilli. So many voices that the former tenant of the White House lacks to hope to return there.
The uncertain impact of its business
The effect “repel” of Donald Trump could even be accentuated by a conviction in one of the multiple trials targeting him. “If these cases are very present in the media, it will remind many Republicans reluctant to vote for Trump why they are”believes Hans Noel.
However, it is difficult to anticipate the true impact of these trials on voters. Previously, “Indictments in four criminal cases would have been enough to exclude any candidate to the presidencyassures Jeffrey Hawkins, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris) and former United States ambassador. But Donald Trump emerges unscathed.” And continue : “If he wins one of his cases between now and November, he will say that this is proof that it was [d’une procédure] can. And if he loses… His voters live in a different universe. They are capable of thinking that it is a conspiracy against Donald Trump.
:quality(50)/2024/03/08/000-34km3l4-65eaed191b3d0779934101.jpg)
The various procedures initiated, one of which is suspended by a decision of the Supreme Court, however have little chance of being concluded by November 5. “When you have a lot of money and lawyers, and a defense-friendly Supreme Courtwe always find pretexts to slow down the judicial process”, notes Jeffrey Hawkins. The judges and prosecutors in charge of these cases are also “aware that public opinion has very little trust in institutions and will not want to organize a trial at the last minute, which would give the impression of partiality”adds the researcher.
Joe Biden facing demobilization
Donald Trump is not entering the second phase of the presidential campaign in such a bad position. He has “demonstrated that the Republican Party is under his control”, assures Jeffrey Hawkins. The divisions that emerged during the primaries could fade. “It’s not unusual for supporters of one candidate to say they will never vote for the other, especially in bitterly fought primaries, recalls Hans Noel. The objective of thein the countryside [de Donald Trump] for the presidential election will be to remind voters [de Nikki Haley] why they support the Republican Party.”
“When we move on to a duel between the parties, most voters will vote for the one to which they usually vote.”
Hans Noel, political scientistat franceinfo
Donald Trump’s room for maneuver remains limited. “In a context where the two presumed presidential candidates are both quite unpopular and well known to the electorate, there is little chance that [les Américains] change your mind about them, deciphers Jeffrey Hawkins. The challenge is not so much to seek votes in the opposite camp, but to mobilize its base.” A particularly important issue for Joe Biden, who “generates little enthusiasm among Democrats”particularly because of his age, notes Jeffrey Hawkins.
:quality(50)/2024/03/08/063-2067198692-65eb2cd873be9188401142.jpg)
Donald Trump, above all, needs his base not to crumble. “LThe electoral college system can be favorable”, insists the researcher associated with Iris. To win the presidential election, an indirect vote, a candidate must obtain a majority of electors. And certain states with results that are difficult to predict – the famous “Swing States” – will be more decisive than others in achieving this. According to surveys for Bloomberg, “Donald Trump is ahead [le président démocrate] in all key statesunderlines Jeffrey Hawkins. However, if he does not win in these states, it will be impossible for Joe Biden to win the presidential election.”