Are “discipline” and “rigor”, two terms used by Minister Girard on the eve of the presentation of the 2024 Budget, ultimately pale euphemisms to avoid using the word “austerity”?
• Read also: Tradition on the eve of the budget: Girard chooses Longueuil rather than Quebec
The ghost of the Couillard years may terrorize the strategists of the Coalition Avenir Québec, but it will take a major turnaround to restore public finances.
Preserve services
Developing a budget is a delicate exercise. Every amount given to someone is withheld from someone else.
Thus, the communications exercise which precedes today’s budget sets the stage for disappointments on many fronts. However, priority will be given to health and education, as explained by the Minister of Finance.
Historically, these major state missions have been supported by public opinion which understands that without resources, the two major networks continue to deteriorate.
However, it would be surprising if services to citizens were not affected. It would also be surprising if we managed to return to balanced budgets without admitting that it will take more than sacrifices, one day or another.
Stimulate the economy without fueling inflation
For the Legault government, the budgetary bet carries risks. Pounded on all sides and less than two years before the elections, he does not have the luxury of failure.
The cicada that sang all summer while granting tax cuts and sending checks to the vast majority of taxpayers must now turn into an ant.
The complex problem in the budgetary exercise is that we want to both stimulate the economy and calm inflation.
However, each dollar invested in major projects, particularly in infrastructure, and each dollar granted in wage increases fuels consumption which, in turn, increases inflation.
The snake bites its tail.
By postponing the achievement of a balanced budget indefinitely, Minister Girard could very well find himself with his own hot potato on the eve of the elections.