for what reasons the presidential majority is focusing its campaign on a duel with the RN

Left behind in the polls, Valérie Hayer, the head of the Renaissance list, attacked the National Rally in her first meeting in Lille on Saturday, at the risk of consolidating Jordan Bardella’s favorite status.

Valérie Hayer had a blast, Saturday March 9, during her first big meeting in Lille. The head of the presidential majority list for the European elections has focused his blows on the far-right party accused of being submissive to Russia. She even resurrected the specter of the 1930s and the Munich agreements by reproaching Marine Le Pen for letting down her guard against Vladimir Putin like Daladier yesterday against Adolf Hitler. A dramatization started a few minutes earlier by Gabriel Attal who pointed out the risk of “dislocation” from Europe. In short, the majority sings the familiar refrain of “me or chaos”in this case chaos in Europe if the progression of far-right parties results in a blocking minority.

By setting up such a muscular duel with the National Rally, the majority consolidates the favorite status of Jordan Bardella. François Bayrou judges, for example, that it would be “give a gift to the RN” what to do with it “the only subject of the campaign”. But if the majority opted for this strategy, validated at the Élysée, it is because they no longer have a choice, the RN is more than ten points ahead.

A strategy that has already worked

By tapping the RN, the objective is not to win back its electorate – voice transfers between RN and Renaissance are marginal. It is rather a question of mobilizing the Macronist base which would be tempted to abstain and siphon off the PS, LR and Greens lists by explaining that faced with the danger from the extreme right, the only useful vote is Renaissance. A dramatization that has already worked twice, at the 2019 European elections when Nathalie Loiseau caught up with Jordan Bardella and in the first round of the 2022 presidential election.

Marine Le Pen is exasperated at being referred to her Russian friendships. But the Putin plaster sticks to him. The vote planned in the Assembly and the Senate, on March 12 and 13, on France’s support for Ukraine will serve as a test. Jordan Bardella claims not to be hostile to “principle”, but the RN has already found a pretext not to approve the Franco-Ukrainian security agreement. Of the “red lines” not to be crossed, starting with the possible eventual accession of Ukraine to the European Union and NATO, which is exactly the position of the Kremlin. Enough to further justify the Macronists’ campaign strategy.