As I prepare for the November 5 election, I sometimes consider various complex scenarios. While some are unrealistic, others are within the realm of possibility.
As you probably already know, a presidential candidate must have a total of 270 electors (out of a total number of 538) to win. What would happen if neither of the two presumptive candidates manages to achieve this milestone?
A rare scenario, but not impossible
For Trump and Biden to be unable to win 270 voters, there would of course be a very close race (it will be), but also the presence of another candidate.
For months now, several candidates have been considering an independent candidacy. If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) is already in the arena and could confuse the issue, we cannot yet imagine him finishing ahead of the other two candidates in any of the 50 states.
Besides Kennedy Jr., two other options could be game-changers. The No Labels group (bipartisan) has still not announced a candidacy, but the site The Hill affirmed Monday that there is more and more thought of a rapprochement with Nikki Haley.
Whether it’s RFK Jr., Nikki Haley or any other candidate, it could only take a victory in a single state to cause a deadlock. To illustrate my point, I used the results simulator from the 270towin site.
Screenshot taken from the site 270towin
The states in blue would have voted Democratic, the reds would have preferred Republicans, and the state in yellow would have favored an independent candidacy. Nothing says states will vote the way I indicated on the map, I’m just providing an example.
That an independent candidacy influences outcomes is quite common in U.S. history. Closer to us in time, we can think of Ralph Nader (2000) or Russ Perot (1992). The last independent to win a state (5 in his case and 46 electors) was George Wallace in 1968.
The House would hold the key to the election
If Trump and Biden cannot cross the 270 mark, it will then be up to the House of Representatives to decide. A particularity of the procedure is that it is not the 435 representatives who would vote separately (the Senate would choose the vice-president).
They would then be grouped according to the state for which they sit and each state would have one vote. Victory would thus go to the first candidate who obtains the vote of 26 states out of 50.
Incidentally, the District of Columbia (the capital, Washington) has three major electors, but is not represented in the House. Can you imagine the reaction of residents if we had to choose a president without them being able to participate?
The 2024 election year is already fascinating for many reasons, but if the scenario presented here materializes, we would share a moment that has few parallels in American history.