Spring will delight summer lovers, but risks disappointing winter sports enthusiasts as temperatures are expected to be rather mild for a large part of Quebec and Ontario, according to MétéoMédia forecasts.
Winter activity enthusiasts should not place too much hope on the coming weeks to make up for lost time after a season marked by a lack of snow on the ground in several areas.
A “very spring-like context” should set in from the first half of March, indicates André Monette, head of the meteorology department at MétéoMédia.
“It’s going to start strong with temperatures well above normal,” he said in an interview.
“For outdoor activities, it will be very difficult to be able to enjoy them, except in ski centers where we can make snow. Otherwise, we will lose a lot of snow in the regions where it remains. »
After mild weather, hints of slightly more wintry conditions should be expected. Cold air and episodes of snow could occur between mid-March and mid-April, which is not unusual at this time of year.
“But this snow, if there is any, it won’t stay on the ground for long. Temperatures will be rising,” says Mr. Monette.
Cold air descents will not be intense and prolonged due to the meteorological context, specifies MétéoMédia.
Spring therefore looks like winter. The latter will be among the mildest ever observed in several regions, according to MétéoMédia, which aligns with the El Niño climatic phenomenon of recent months.
“El Niño is losing intensity. We will later move into a La Niña context, therefore colder waters in the Pacific. This will bring a rather exceptional spring,” explains Mr. Monette.
Forest fire risks
The temperatures forecast over the next few days will undoubtedly be reminiscent of spring 2012.
“We had 20 to 25 degrees Celsius in the third week of March. We have a bit of the same thing coming for the first two weeks of March, but much earlier in the month,” underlines Mr. Monette.
The thermometer could oscillate between 15 and 20 degrees, which is “exceptional” for this time of year, he maintains.
The regions of eastern Quebec, such as Gaspésie, Côte-Nord and Bas-Saint-Laurent, could, for their part, experience a spring that is a little closer to normal, but overall pleasant.
However, the mild and dry weather combined with a small amount of snow will possibly bring certain consequences, warns Mr. Monette.
“The risk of forest fires and drought will be particularly worth monitoring in the second half of the season,” when less water could be available to keep soils moist, he says.
But conversely, the risk of flooding is expected to be rather low this spring with possible amounts of precipitation below seasonal norms.
Maritimes: “spring in two stages”
In the rest of the country, the Rockies could also experience above normal temperatures and less precipitation.
However, the Maritime provinces could experience mild weather to a lesser extent than elsewhere in Canada, estimates MétéoMédia.
For New Brunswick, for example, a “spring in two stages” is expected, says Mr. Monette.
“The first half will be a little closer to normal, there may still be some snow. It is more in the second half that we will find weather above normal and dry weather,” he explains.
However, areas of the Maritimes further south are likely to receive more precipitation due to a more active system that runs along the east coast of the United States and part of Nova Scotia, adds Mr. Monette.