Today, I like the odds against a slightly overlooked National Hockey League (NHL) club that also fits well into one of my most lucrative betting systems: “porous defense.”
Let me quickly explain the rules of this system to you. If the home team has allowed four or more goals in each of their previous two games (not necessarily losses) and the decimal odds are greater than 2.05 or +105 in American format, we should bet on them.
Want to know how this system is doing in 2023-2024 so far? I’m glad you asked! This strategy works very well, since it always favors the underdogs.
At this stage of the season, the success percentage is above 50%. The win-loss record is 20-17, while the profit is +13.94, all accompanied by an incredible return on investment of 37.7%.
Concretely, what does this mean? This means that if you had bet $100 on each of the two options, you would have made a profit of $13.94.
That said, can you identify the team associated with the “porous defense” today?
The Calgary Flames, who host the Winnipeg Jets, will begin the game having allowed four or more goals in each of their previous two meetings. In those, they gave up 11 goals, five against the New Jersey Devils and, believe it or not, six against the miserable San Jose Sharks.
At the time of writing, the Flames had odds of +110 in American format or 2.10 among many oddsmakers. So, my official pick of the day is a small surprise victory against the Winnipeg Jets.
They are 15-7-3 on the road this season. On the other hand, the Flames boast a 12-13-1 record at the Scotiabank Saddledome, which isn’t very convincing, I must admit.
The Jets continued to surprise a lot of people this year. They were fantastic defensively during the campaign. Allowing an average of 2.29 goals per game, their solid defense is the best in the league. This type of performance is enough to make Washington’s secret services blush.
Offensively, season statistics show that very little separates the two clubs. So far, the Jets have totaled three goals and 30.8 shots per game. For their part, the Flames have accumulated 3.02 goals and 31.4 shots, which is a little better.
In order to break through the Jets’ stronghold on defense, the Flames will need a big game from some important weapons up front. This season, Nazem Kadri scored 17 goals and provided 28 assists for 45 points. Blake Coleman was also solid, collecting 43 points with 21 goals and 22 assists. To defeat the Jets defense, both men will have to shine at their best.