Free washer | Is the Canadian progressing?

By suffering an eighth defeat in eleven games, including one in overtime, the Canadian is approaching his record at the same date last year. With its record of 22-27-8, Montreal has only two more points than after 55 games the previous season. He even won one fewer game, but reached overtime or the shootout four more times.

The CH is not progressing so many would be tempted to conclude. Not necessarily. In the first two or three years of a rebuild, progress in the standings is not synonymous with team growth. We must instead focus on the progress of the members of the future core.

That Josh Anderson is having a miserable season with only seven goals, that Jake Evans confirms to us that he is a fourth-line center, that Jake Allen has won only one game since December 18 and allowed 28 goals in his most recent seven starts, that Brendan Gallagher is struggling to keep up and Tanner Pearson is showing us that his value is almost zero doesn’t matter.

Ultimately, the regression of defenders Jordan Harris, Johnathan Kovacevic, Justin Barron and, to a certain extent, Arber Xhekaj, is not dramatic because they are not considered by management in the restricted core of six or seven players who will make the team win in a few years.

Who can be included in this core and have they progressed? We obviously have to start with the first trio, made up of three young players under 25 years old.

For many, Suzuki represented a second center, a third for his fiercest detractors. His 19 points in his most recent 11 games moved him up to 32^e rank of NHL scorers with 53 points in 55 games, four points behind Brayden Point and 21^e rank. Suzuki has one point more than Mika Zibanejad and two less than Sidney Crosby. He produces at a pace of 79 points over a full season.

In just a few weeks, Juraj Slafkovsky transformed himself from a shy young player into a formidable power forward. He has obtained 12 points in his last 8 games, 22 points in his last 24 games. He’s not yet 20!

Cole Caufield, 23 years old since January, scores less often than last year, but he offers a more complete game in the final weeks and produces at a slightly higher rate than last year in terms of points. He’s on his way to a 67-point season, but at his current pace, he could easily reach 70 points.

Unfortunately, the other young centerpiece of the attack, Kirby Dach, 23, suffered an injury in the second game. His 16 points in his last 18 games with the CH, including the first of the season in Toronto, his solid training camp and his effectiveness in defense and puck protection suggest good things in health, if he remains healthy. . However, there will be doubts until his first full season.

Alex Newhook, 23, showed some flashes in an injury-interrupted season. In 28 games, he produced at a rate of 23 goals and 44 points. There is progress in this direction, and Newhook can aspire to a position on a top 6 in light of these results, without being considered a top player, at least for the moment.

The Canadian would be missing at least three solid attacking players to constitute a top 9 solid, accepting the fact that the ninth is a borderline fourth-line player.

One of these attackers may be drafted in the top 10 next year, a Cayden Lindstrom, this giant of 6 feet 4 inches and 215 pounds, 47 points, including 27 goals, in 32 games in Medicine Hat, in the Western Junior League. Perhaps the spectacular Russian Ivan Demidov, 57 points in 28 MHL games, the Russian junior league, or Tij Iginla, son of Jarome, 65 points, 37 goals, in 51 games in Kelowna, also in the West. But the Canadiens recruiters can also turn to a defender, obviously.

Joshua Roy? The sample is still too thin to confirm a place in the top 9 in the long term, although it shows some promise. Owen Beck? He has produced at a crazy rate since his arrival in Saginaw, with 30 points in 18 games, but we don’t see any offensive potential in the NHL. To be continued. Filip Mesar and Sean Farrell will have work to do to prove that they can help the CH in the long term.

We should not rule out the idea of ​​another exchange similar to that of Dach or Newhook, with a Zegras, Turcotte or other. Zegras nevertheless would cost at least one choice in the top ten. Unless you do incredible gymnastics like in Dach’s case. Not impossible.

In defense, Kaiden Guhle remains the only youngster on the current roster who can be predicted to have a place in the top 3 long-term. His offensive output has dropped slightly, but his overall game has progressed, on the right in the first pairing with Mike Matheson. He now rarely plays less than 21 minutes per game. Matheson, moreover, will have two more good seasons to give to the Canadian before his contract expires. It’s an important safe bet.

Right-handed defender David Reinbacher will be one of the keys to the future, management hopes. He wasn’t drafted fifth overall for nothing. He had a more difficult season in Switzerland, marked by injuries, poor collective performances from his club and coaching changes, but his potential remains intact. We should see him in Laval in the coming weeks.

Otherwise, there is uncertainty. Justin Barron has shown at times that he could belong to a top 4 of the NHL, but he lacks consistency. He’s only 22, but won’t be the next Alex Pietrangelo. He is in direct competition with Logan Mailloux, third scorer among American League defenders with 35 points in 48 games, at only 20 years old, but who should be avoided to be confused with Brent Burns.

Lane Hutson? The great mystery. Outrageously dominant in the NCAA with 85 points in 67 games over the past two years. But not explosive for a 5-foot-8 player. Could become the next Adam Fox or Marc-André Bergeron, an offensive specialist in the National League between 2003 and 2013. Opinions are divided and we will not know until his first skates in Montreal at the end of the season. If the first scenario comes to fruition, the CH will make giant strides.

Jayden Struble is a pleasant surprise. Within a contending team, he is more in his place within a third pair. The Canadian obviously wants to see Arber Xhekaj improve his defensive game, especially his decisions with and without the puck, so as to have a regular place in a third pair. It constitutes a peacemaker of rare effectiveness. He was almost systematically opposed to the rough Tom Wilson on Saturday. Wilson was as gentle as a lamb…

Jordan Harris and Johnathan Kovacevic will have to fight over the next few years to keep their positions. We will see how Adam Engström adapts to the North American game.

A top defenseman in his late 20s may need to be added down the road, in a trade or on the free agent market.

In net, despite some tougher games recently, Samuel Montembeault is proving he can be an adequate number one goaltender. Cayden Primeau looks like he belongs in the NHL.

Here is the portrait of the situation. We have a certain foundation, in this second year of reconstruction, but not all the walls are erected, nor the roof for that matter. Most of the equipment has been purchased, but it needs to be installed. We are still far from interior decoration.

Montreal has two first-round picks in 2024, including one most likely in the top 10two first-round picks in 2025, and eight second and third-round picks in the next two vintages.

Management didn’t want to say the “P” word (playoffs) during its annual golf tournament. If we do it next year, it will be lip service. The year of big takeoff is expected in 2025-2026. Be warned…

Is the Canadian progressing? (2)

Collectively, the Canadian has improved in some aspects of the game, including in numerical superiority and during faceoffs. The performance in numerical inferiority still constitutes a big gap.

Average goals scored per match

• 2023-2024: 2.78 (27^e)
• 2022-2023: 2.77 (26^e)

Average goals allowed per match

• 2023-2024: 3.53 (29^e)
• 2022-2023: 3.72 (29^e)

Performance in numerical superiority

• 2023-2024: 20.1% (18^e)
• 2022-2023: 16.1% (29^e)

Outnumbered performance

• 2023-2024: 74% (31^e)
• 2022-2023: 72.7% (29^e)

Faceoffs

• 2023-2024: 52.6% (6^e)
• 2022-2023: 48.5% (25^e)