When he observes the polls, Joe Biden generally sees few encouraging figures. Last week, a Quinnipiac poll put him ahead of Donald Trump, a lead that exceeded the margin of error.
The outgoing president is credited with 50% of support against 44% for his opponent. Among the good news for Democrats is the widening gap within the female electorate. Biden crushes Trump by 22 points (58% vs. 36%).
Republicans, Trump and women
Republicans have been struggling for several years to reach the female electorate. Attacks on the right to abortion are often seen as obstacles to women’s freedom.
Now that the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade, it’s no wonder, as was the case in the midterm elections, that abortion has become a ballot box issue.
Add to this judgment Trump’s attacks and inappropriate remarks against several women since 2016, or the fact of having cheated on his wife with a pornographic film star, and we obtain a bleak portrait.
It is not enough? The defeated candidate in 2020 was found guilty of sexual assault and sanctioned twice rather than once for defamation against the victim.
These women who vote for Trump
If abortion and Donald Trump’s personal behavior push many women to vote for the Democrat, these arguments are insufficient in the eyes of many voters. What I mentioned above would only amount to a smear campaign.
If they continue to support Trump, it is because they consider that the Republican manages the economy better than his Democratic rival, even if the data is rather favorable to the latter.
These women also put party loyalty ahead of other considerations. They are Republicans first and foremost and they would never vote for Democrats, even less for Joe Biden, whom they dislike.
Another Quinnipiac poll (in 2017) also noted a factor that could be surprising. It revealed that 43% of Republican women registered to vote claimed to have been sexually assaulted.
Despite this enormous proportion, 55% of Republicans considered that their candidate handled the accusations against him well. In a 2023 article, the Washington Post confirmed that these women preferred that Congress not look into the matter.
The last element that I think is relevant to underline is that the women who vote for Trump are, in a very high proportion, white women. The same phenomenon is observable in men.
As the election deadline approaches, Donald Trump therefore still enjoys a favorable bias among Republicans, including more than half of white women. Joe Biden no longer hopes to reap any gains or change the trend.
He filled up with votes among the female electorate and, as in 2020, he will then rely on independents and the mobilization of democratic troops.