Despite the reputation of a very stable country, for several days, political scientist Michel Galy has said he fears a shift into violence. The “question of the attitude of the army” is now raised, according to him.
:quality(50)/2023/07/07/64a7df4c5fe71_placeholder-36b69ec8.png)
Published
Update
Reading time: 3 min
:quality(50)/2024/02/04/sipa-ap22849184-000002-65bfc1633732b865649661.jpg)
Senegal under high tension. While the presidential campaign was to begin on Sunday February 4, President Macky Sall’s decision on Saturday to postpone the vote indefinitely ignited the powder. With the opposition calling for a march, a large part of the youth is in the streets. On Monday, the gendarmes used tear gas to disperse a gathering in front of the National Assembly in Dakar.
The announcement, made in a context of political crisis by the president elected in 2012 and re-elected in 2019, also caused concern abroad, and once again plunges this country known as an island of stability into the unknown. Africa, but which has experienced various episodes of deadly unrest since 2021. On franceinfo, political scientist Michel Galy, professor of geopolitics at the Free Institute for the Study of International Relations in Paris, says he fears a wave of violence.
As soon as the postponement of the elections was announced, the Senegalese opposition called for mobilization, while the European Union was worried about a “period of uncertainty” in the country. Should we fear a shift in Senegal?
Yes, absolutely. It sounds strong, but it is indeed a constitutional coup. The problem throughout West Africa is that these constitutional coups, whether it be the postponement of elections, cancellations, often third mandates…, sometimes lead, and increasingly, to as in Guinea and Mali, to military coups. This is what the international community fears without saying it.
Since its independence in 1965, Senegal has had the reputation of being one of the most stable democracies in West Africa. Can the country slide into violence like its neighbors?
Absolutely. Senegal is a country which has a very justified reputation for stability, where its founding president, Léopold Sédar Senghor, himself withdrew from power, which is very rare in sub-Saharan Africa and elections until here have been respected. In any case, their dates were respected and it went rather well. Indeed, it is not at all the same as, for example, Mali which has traditions, like Burkina too, of a military regime type. But today, Dakar is entering a period of constitutional and legal vagueness, even a crisis of legitimacy where anything can happen. And it starts with street uprisings. But also everyone can ask themselves the question of the attitude of the army if there are increasingly serious unrest.
With this popular anger, we can once again see a questioning of the elites, of the political class of those in power…
There is indeed a sort of youth uprising. Senegal is a very young country, with 75% of the population under 25 years old. But this is not a Senegalese exception. We also see that these are countries that are still somewhat under international, even French, supervision, particularly in Mali, Burkina, and Niger recently. Basically, there is cross-border contagion: in the age of the Internet, everyone knows what is happening in neighboring countries. There are therefore indeed, without talking about the domino theory, possibilities of imitating countries where the constitutional order no longer exists or has been completely disrupted.
And we also see that students in Senegal are extremely mobilized…
The root cause is always the same: that the president in power, Macky Sall, is not running again. But his party does not want to cede power. The main opponent Ousmane Sonko was sidelined, put in prison and extremely affected by his detention. And basically, when there is no legal electoral alternative, it is the streets that speak out. And although it is a stable country, there have always been fits and starts of extremely violent, if not bloody, protests.
Political crisis, social crisis, you say, with all that this can cause economically for this country…
Senegal is considered, with Côte d’Ivoire, as poles of economic stability. But if there are riots in the capital and if, for example, the roads, the port, etc., are blocked, this could, in the medium term, result in a paralysis of the country. And, this, and this is not anecdotal, in the middle of the African Cup of Nations.