A little more optimism, but tinged with concern: the OECD on Monday raised its global growth forecast for 2024, while warning of a risk of a further rise in inflation if the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea were to continue. pursue.
Excluding a new unexpected geopolitical shock, global growth is expected to be stronger than previous OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) forecasts: global GDP should increase by 2.9% compared to 2.7% estimated in November .
The Parisian institution, on the other hand, carefully observes the Red Sea, a central crossing point for world trade with some 12% of traffic. This, severely disrupted since mid-November by rebel attacks in support of the Palestinian cause, has fallen by almost 30% over one year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
In order to avoid risks, ships bypass this canal by passing through Africa and the Cape of Good Hope, like those of the carrier CMA-CGM, which announced on Friday that it was once again suspending the transit of its boats through the Red Sea. This longer and more expensive journey should be reflected in the prices of goods.
“If it proves to be persistent”, the increase in maritime transport costs could increase inflation in 2024, to the tune of 0.4 points more after approximately one year in developed countries, estimates the OECD in its quarterly report.
However, it is precisely thanks to the slowdown in inflation, coupled with the reduction in central bank interest rates, that a lasting economic recovery could see the light of day, according to major international institutes.
250% inflation in Argentina
For now, “inflation should return to its target in most G20 countries by the end of 2025”, with 2.6% expected this year and 2.4% next year, according to the OECD. These calculations do not include the huge increases expected in Argentina (250.6% in 2024 and 64.7% in 2025, against a backdrop of strong devaluation of the peso by the new president Javier Milei) and in Turkey.
Beyond the Houthis, the OECD is monitoring the Middle East: “an expansion or escalation of the conflict” could “result in greater disruptions to maritime transport than currently expected and accentuate bottlenecks,” it believes. -she, on the first day of a visit to the region by American Secretary of State Antony Blinken to encourage a truce between Israel and Hamas.
“The conflict in the Middle East could threaten energy supplies,” added the institution’s chief economist, Clare Lombardelli, during a press conference on Monday.
In its report, the OECD further states that a deterioration of the situation “would harm growth”.
American locomotive
For now, global growth should be supported this year by growth in American GDP, expected at 2.1% compared to 1.5% in November.
“Household spending and the strength of the labor market should continue to support growth,” writes the economic institution, three days after the publication of an American report showing twice as many job creations for January as expected. .
At the same time, inflation is expected to slow down faster than expected this year to 2.2% compared to 2.8% in the latest forecasts, enough to reassure the American Central Bank (Fed) in its strategy of lowering rates, even if its president on Wednesday judged it “unlikely” to implement the first interest rate cut in two years in March.
Growth in the euro zone will be weighed down by its first two economies, underlines the OECD: France should see its GDP increase by 0.6%, or 0.2 points less compared to November forecasts, and the Germany sees its own of 0.3%, or 0.3 points less than previously estimated.
On a continental scale, this will translate into an increase of 0.6% in growth in 2024, down 0.3 points compared to November forecasts.
The OECD, on the other hand, left its forecasts unchanged for the United Kingdom, with 0.7% this year, for China with 4.7%, Japan, with 1%, but revised upwards its forecast for Russia with 1.8% expected this year, or 0.7 points more than expected in November.