The International Court of Justice has just declared itself competent to judge whether or not Russia’s actions in Ukraine constitute genocide. The Court will therefore have to decide simultaneously on two potential genocides: that of which Russia is accused in Ukraine and that of which Israel is accused in Gaza. This paralleling of the actions of the two countries is not good for one or the other. The comparison between Russia and Israel can only discredit Russia among the populations of the Arab world, if the government of Vladimir Putin is found guilty. Conversely, the Israeli government of Benyamin Netanyahu, already furious at being the subject of an investigation for genocide by the International Court, risks being discredited in public opinion in democratic countries, first and foremost in the United States. This could result in a severe loss of influence for the Israeli government.
1) What are the two main elements of the definition of genocide?
The UN definition of genocide includes a material aspect of harming the survival of a specific population, but also a clear intention to harm this sustainability. Both aspects must be present for there to be genocide.
2) What are the facts alleged against Russia?
Russia has conquered almost a fifth of Ukrainian territory. Putin has expressed his intention to conquer Ukraine in its entirety. He denies the very existence of Ukraine and Ukrainian culture. The Russian army is said to have particularly targeted cultural facilities in Ukraine. The teaching of Ukrainian is prohibited in the Ukrainian territories it occupies. However, Putin does not seek to wipe out the entire Ukrainian population or force them to leave Ukraine’s territory completely. He wants to Russify it. Furthermore, even if some towns became uninhabitable following Russian bombings, this is not the case for all of the Ukrainian territories conquered by the Russians.
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3) What are the facts alleged against Israel?
The destruction by the Israeli army in Gaza is of an extraordinary scale. Almost half of all buildings in Gaza are destroyed or unusable. Gazans suffer from malnutrition and many of them are on the verge of starvation. Almost the entire population of Gaza is displaced. Israeli extremists do not hide their intention to empty the territory of Palestinians. The International Court of Justice, which had, among other things, asked the Israeli government not to hinder humanitarian aid in Gaza and to punish those who wanted to drive Gazans from their territories, does not seem to have been listened to.
4) Are the suffering of populations justified?
Whatever the decision of the International Court of Justice, the war in Ukraine as well as the war against the Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, are increasingly linked in global public opinion. Both Putin and Netanyahu face conviction for the same crime. The justifications that both provide to explain their actions are no match for the incredible and disproportionate suffering of the targeted populations.
5) How is the cause likely to evolve?
It is likely that the International Court of Justice will condemn both countries for genocide. The best would be for Putin and Netanyahu to be overthrown by then. It’s practically impossible for the first, but very likely for the second. Both will go down in history as leaders who significantly weakened their countries, both internally and externally.