Reading the latest CMHC report on the rental housing crisis, we understand to what extent we are caught in a perfect storm.
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And once again, it is the less well-off who suffer.
Young people, newcomers, the elderly, those with a lower income, they are the ones who represent the pool of tenants.
They are now facing historic pressure, with a shortage of apartments which is causing rents to rise like never before.
New arrivals
Ironically, new arrivals who settle in large numbers in our metropolises like Montreal are often the first victims of the shortage.
The poor planning – or adequacy – between population growth boosted by temporary immigration and the housing supply is staring us in the face.
No one can ignore it anymore.
” The city [Montréal] attracts the largest share of non-permanent residents (international students, temporary workers and asylum seekers) in Quebec, who mainly find accommodation in the rental market. The solid recovery in migration after the pandemic has therefore contributed to the strong rebound in demand for rental housing in the region,” the report explains, as the primary cause of the shortage.
- Listen to the interview with Francis Cortellino, senior economist at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation on Alexandre Dubé’s show via QUB radio :
Indeed, the Quebec metropolis experienced a record positive migratory balance of 150,000 in 2023. This is more than double that in 2022. And it is temporary residents who are the main factor.
Another cause of the unprecedented crisis in the rental market: the aging of the population.
Many older people are leaving their homes to enter the rental market, whether in an apartment or condo.
Hang on
To add to the storm, with the labor shortage, young people aged 15 to 24 have no shortage of good job opportunities, which pushes them to rent.
But at the same time, becoming a homeowner has become so expensive that many are staying renters for longer.
All the ingredients come together to create the worst housing crisis we have ever known.
And unfortunately, we can’t see the end of the tunnel.
We talk a lot about the lack of housing, but we say less often that the last few years have been among the most productive in terms of housing starts.
In Montreal, a record number of housing units were built in 2021 and 2022. More than 16,000 of these units were completed last year.
This is a fraction of what is needed to restore affordable prices to the market.
Worse, CMHC predicts that the number of constructions will slow this year, due to high construction and financing costs due to interest rates.
Hang in there, the storm is here to stay.