the withdrawal of this economic community benefits Russia

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, three countries newly led by juntas, are slamming the door on ECOWAS, the West African organization to which they have belonged for almost 50 years. The entire region finds itself destabilized.

For the region, it’s a bit like the same effect that Brexit had on Europe… but which happened much more quickly. The formal notification of the triple withdrawal was sent Monday, January 29, by mail, just 24 hours after the reading of a simultaneous press release in the television news of Mali, Burkina and Niger.

The three countries criticize the Economic Community of West African States for moving away from the ideals of its founding fathers and Pan-Africanism. They accuse it of being subject to the influence of foreign powers, of not having assisted them in the fight against terrorism and insecurity, and finally of having adopted against them “illegal, illegitimate, inhumane and irresponsible sanctions.

The exit process normally takes one year, during which time states must continue to comply with their obligations. This decision remains unique in the history of ECOWAS, an economic organization of 15 countries currently chaired by Nigeria, which expressed its “sadness” Monday January 29. But this is not a surprise: tensions had been building for several months with Bamako, Ouagadougou and Niamey, already suspended since the military came to power in 2020, 2022 and 2023. Last summer, the organization had even brandished the threat of the use of force in Niger to reestablish constitutional order and restore the authority of President Bazoum.

Elections planned for 2024

This withdrawal removes the prospect of a return of civilians to power. Elections were due to take place in 2024 in Mali and Burkina, allowing a return to civilian government. This was a prerequisite required by ECOWAS for the lifting of economic sanctions. They no longer have any reason to exist. “Well installed in the palaces and before the delights of power, [les putschistes] want to linger in presidential chairs“, criticizes Le Patriote, the daily newspaper of the ruling party in Côte d’Ivoire.

Their argument for canceling the elections? In the name of the anti-jihadist fight, it is necessary to extend the duration of transitions. However, on the security level, while terrorist groups are progressing, the fact that the region is fragmenting is not good news for its stability.

ECOWAS allows 300 million people to travel between its member countries without a visa. By leaving the organization, the three rebels will lose the benefit of this free movement (and also access to the ocean). This worries many nationals, who will not be able to benefit from the same advantages as within another, much smaller, organization, the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which links them in particular to Senegal and Ivory Coast. .

Even if the signing of bilateral agreements between neighbors can mitigate the effects of the divorce, customs tariffs could also increase and increase the price of certain foodstuffs for households: onions or livestock, shipped by Niger throughout the region.

Russia, privileged partner

The three countries will now turn to Russia, which will replace France in the chair of privileged partner in terms of economic, military and political cooperation. It recently provided 25,000 tonnes of wheat free of charge to Mali and Burkina. At the end of December, it reopened its embassy in Ouagadougou after 30 years of closure and is also moving closer to Niger.

Moscow has become the obligatory stop on African diplomatic tours. The Nigerien Prime Minister was there two weeks ago, just before the announcement of the break with ECOWAS… Which is perhaps not just a coincidence of timing.