We don’t really know what made Marwah Rizqy laugh the most, when we asked her what she thought of Denis Coderre’s record during his four years at Montreal City Hall. Was it the assessment itself, which is not so laughable, or rather the idea that he could think of becoming leader of the PLQ?
The member for Saint-Laurent may have decided that it was better to laugh about it than to cry, because the prospect of her return is so perplexing. His passage to Everybody talks about itSunday evening, did nothing to dispel the unease already aroused by the candidacy of a man who does not precisely embody the renewal that the liberals so need.
The courage and determination that allowed him to recover after the stroke that devastated him last year are certainly admirable, but is he sufficiently recovered to plunge back into the furnace of politics? He obviously believes it, but the liberals will also have to ask themselves the question, as delicate as it may be.
Even if he will not officially announce his decision until his return from Compostela next May, it already seems to have been made. For his own sake as much as for that of the PLQ, it is to be hoped that this pilgrimage will allow him to think twice.
Anyone, except Coderre, some will say. Anyone, even Coderre, others will respond. As things currently stand, the Liberals cannot afford to be choosy. Fifteen months after the departure of Dominique Anglade, there is no rush to take over from him, except for the deputy for Marguerite-Bourgeoys, Frédéric Beauchemin, who does not attract crowds.
Even in the PLQ, no one can seriously believe in the possibility of victory in 2026. There is therefore a very good chance that the next leader will be a transitional leader. Since Georges-Émile Lapalme, in the 1950s, Jean Charest was the only one to survive a defeat in 1998, and it was because the Liberals had despite everything obtained more votes than the PQ.
The latest Pallas Data survey/Qc125/News credits the PLQ with only 15% of voting intentions, far behind the PQ (32%), the CAQ (21%) and QS (17%). The disconnect with the French-speaking electorate remains total.
Mr. Coderre understood very well that this almost desperate situation was precisely an opportunity for him. If power were at hand, there would be no shortage of more attractive candidates, whose presence would likely have discouraged him from entering the race himself.
It is very rare for an aspiring leader of a party forming the official opposition to volunteer to occupy a position by explicitly accepting that he or she could be interim. Even when it seems impossible, activists expect to be promised victory.
As unusual as it is, this posture is not stupid. By encouraging potential opponents to take a turn to avoid getting burned prematurely, Mr. Coderre wants to eliminate obstacles. Besides, you never know, circumstances could mean that he is entitled to a second chance.
For liberals, this is a think about it. Electing Mr. Coderre would fill the current void, but the risk is real. We cannot exclude that he will lead the party to disaster. If he ends up with only a dozen seats in 2026, the quest for a new leader could be even more difficult than it is today.
If the candidacy of the former mayor of Montreal has earned the PLQ more publicity than it has received in a year, it will be necessary to wait until the spring of 2025 before he or another takes its leadership. The party has had other interim periods in the past, but they have not been this long, and it has never fallen into such indifference. Marc Tanguay takes his dreams for reality if he really thinks that the liberal discourse “resonates in the hearts of Quebecers”.
It is true that the role of interim leader is particularly thankless. It essentially consists of ensuring a certain coherence in the message, and the best way to achieve this is to stick to commonplaces, which Mr. Tanguay excels at, until the new leader comes to indicate a direction .
If it is not colorless, the PLQ projects the image of an odorless and tasteless party. The report on the recovery committee chaired by former senator André Pratte and the MP for Bourassa-Sauvé, Madwa-Nika Cadet, had virtually no response outside the party.
We can blame Denis Coderre for many things, but he leaves no one indifferent. Unless another strong candidate comes forward, it is he who will be increasingly perceived as the voice and image of the PLQ, even if this can be uncomfortable.