The stalemate persists in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. The first condition for lasting detente is naive as the dynamics of self-destruction are anchored in this conflict characterized by the rise of extremes. Can we still hope for a ceasefire from Israel AND the release of all the hostages by Hamas? Can we envisage the overthrow of the far-right coalition in the Knesset while calling for the dismantling of Hamas, a terrorist organization? Can we imagine that the voices of moderation prevail over the angry cries of destruction?
In light of recent developments, the two-state solution in the Middle East is looking like a cynical farce. Following the terrorist attack of October 7, a pogrom that left around 1,140 Israeli victims, the Jewish state increased its bombings to the point of losing its sense of proportionality. To date, more than 26,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, have died in the ruins that will be Gaza’s immediate future. This humanitarian catastrophe, for a population caught in the grip of this cramped territory, will give Hamas and other small groups which deny Israel its legitimate right to exist material for propaganda and recruitment for decades to come.
Around 85% of Gaza’s population has been displaced by bombing and fighting. Eleven extremist ministers, well established within the Netanyahu government, speak without embarrassment of their expulsion and a new phase of colonization of the Gaza Strip. The Oslo Accords, dead and buried for a long time, have never seemed so unreal in their ambition for lasting peace. Neither security nor territory. It is an avenue that will lead the Middle East into an impasse.
Last week, the International Court of Justice, based in The Hague, issued a balanced judgment. She ordered Israel to comply with a series of measures aimed at preventing any possible act of genocide and allowing access to humanitarian aid in Gaza. Even the Israeli judge at the International Court, Aharon Barak, endorsed this demand for Israel to prevent and punish incitement to genocide in the Gaza Strip.
For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this judgment is null and void. Its publication coincided with the dismissal of 12 employees of the UN Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), suspected of having been actively involved in the October 7 terrorist attack. Many countries, including the United States and Canada, have temporarily suspended funding to the agency in protest. UNRWA may have 13,000 employees and play an essential role in alleviating the misery of the Palestinians, but it cannot minimize the seriousness of the situation. She must act quickly and ensure that there is not a growing cancer in her ranks.
Coming back to the decision of the International Court, its cold reception by Israel is a shame because the judgment has the appearance of an olive branch. The International Court has not yet ruled on the allegation of genocide against the Palestinian people made by South Africa. This delicate debate will take place at a later date. The Tribunal does not order a ceasefire either, but it requests the release of the hundred hostages held in the Gaza Strip.
This judgment sheds light on a collateral victim of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, recalling that the parties to this conflict are bound by international law and humanitarian considerations. Civilian populations cannot be continually crushed under bombs, at the risk of losing our humanity. The longer the conflict persists in its asymmetrical nature, the more it will test the ideal of democracy and international institutions based on cooperation and multilateralism.
The Court thus leaves a door ajar for the search for a diplomatic solution in which Israel’s allies, led by the United States, must take part. If the bombings have proven one thing in their merciless intensity, it is that the State of Israel will not be able to eradicate Hamas in the Gaza Strip without inflicting on the Palestinians a bruise of the soul that will make the unlikely search for peace for decades to come. Israel will need allies in Arab countries — and there are some — to contain the threat from Hamas.
Prime Minister Netanyahu still needs to send signals of appeasement and recognition of the two-state solution. He is viscerally incapable of doing so, to the point where we will have to hope for the rout of his far-right coalition, at the same time as the isolation of Hamas by the Arab countries, to hope for a lull in the absence of peace.