the junta is running out of steam in the face of armed resistance groups

Next February 1 will be the third anniversary of the military coup in Burma and as this date approaches, the national army is losing a series of defeats and, according to some experts, does not even control half of its territory.

In Burma, the military is showing serious signs of weakness and Chinese and Indian neighbors are worried. On the ground, the army has lost almost three quarters of its troops over the past three years. While it had 350,000 men in 2021, in 2024 there were less than 100,000. In military jargon, this is called a debacle and it was caused by the coordinated attacks of several resistance movements. Burmese.

In Shan, a state bordering China in the north of the country, Beijing offered mediation and obtained a ceasefire. However, six Burmese generals have been dismissed and now face the death penalty for allowing rebels to take control of a strategic border post for trade between Burma and China.

The army also suffered defeats in the west, on the borders with India and Bangladesh, with impressive images on social networks of several dozen Burmese soldiers who had come to take refuge on the Indian side to escape the heavy fire from armed groups of the region. The attacks went so far as to put pressure on the border police. The Indian government has already called on the junta to return to the path of democracy and this type of incident will undoubtedly accentuate the diplomatic pressure to which the Burmese generals are currently subject.

Support is crumbling

Inside the country, strong supporters are beginning to question the competence of the State Administrative Council, which is the governing body of the ruling generals. Its president is none other than Min Aung Hlaing, the strong man of Burma and he was called into question on January 18 during the gathering of the ultranationalist Buddhist movement, Ma Ba Tha, until then historic support of the junta since the 2021 putsch.

From the platform, the monk Ashin Ariawuntha clearly calls for the resignation of Min Aung Hlaing and suggests that he be replaced by his number 2, who according to him “has the face of a real soldier.” Ma Ba Tha is a Buddhist association for the protection of race and religion and is therefore demanding a change of leadership at the top of the junta. This change could take place on January 31 during the next Defense Council, just before the third anniversary of the putsch.

If these radical Burmese monks are so worried, it is because they have long pushed for the persecution of Muslim communities, who are minorities today very active within the various resistance movements.