Each victory of Donald Trump in the primaries and caucuses gives the impression that he is a steamroller.
The mention of a dominant victory sows panic among those, in the United States or elsewhere, who fear for democracy and the stability of relations with the partners of this troubled and fragile American giant.
impregnable Trump
Regardless of the results obtained by Nikki Haley in New Hampshire, only the courts or a historic feat (do you believe in a miracle?) of the Republican candidate will deprive us of this second duel that almost no one wants.
We have known for years now that Trump knew better than anyone how to bring together the dissatisfied, the anti-establishment vote and many conservatives who associate with the far right.
The “Trump coalition” imposes its rhythm on the Republican Party and it is she who moves tirelessly to ensure the triumphs of the 45e president. They will be there on November 5, 2024.
A fervor that hides another reality
Despite the failures of 2020 and 2022, these voters want to give Trump another chance, hoping to repeat the perfect storm of 2016.
The accounting reality is, however, more complex. If Joe Biden does not arouse any enthusiasm, for many he remains the solution of the lesser evil. Assuming there will be no independent parties or candidates to split the vote, the Republican candidate will have to overcome a significant obstacle, his extremism.
Analysis of the results of the Iowa caucuses confirmed what several polls already revealed. As much as Trump is popular with a certain clientele, many Republicans and independents are determined to overthrow him.
According to an NBCNews/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, nearly half of Nikki Haley’s supporters would support Biden if their candidate were defeated. Without being able to analyze the New Hampshire results right away, many anti-Trump voters have told media representatives the same thing.
If this data does not prevent him from going his merry way for the moment, it will be decisive during the presidential campaign.
Yes, Trump enjoys constant media coverage and no one knows who he is anymore. This is precisely the heart of the problem. In 2016, in the role of the anti-establishment underdog who we wanted to give a chance, he could seduce. Now that we know his record and that he has become more radical in his attacks, he is scary.
Other polls point to a pushback effect from Donald Trump’s candidacy. That of ABC News for the last quarter of 2023 underlined the fragility of its support among independents while that of New York Times/Siena indicated that Biden’s support among these same independents was higher than that of his rival.
Once again, we will be treated to a close election whose outcome will be determined by the mobilization of voters in a handful of states. Biden maintains a more than fair chance of obtaining a second term and you now know why he is hanging on.