It makes you wonder why persist? Why absolutely seek to stop Donald Trump’s accelerated march towards the nomination of the Republican Party? We cannot say that Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis emerged – forgive the paradox – triumphant from their failure in Iowa.
Why seek to stop Trump? Possibly, because he is a liar, a provocateur who openly flirts with racism and threatens American democracy as we know it.
And yet, I have no doubt that the next presidential election will pit Joe Biden against Donald Trump. Barring exceptional events: the death or physical incapacity of one of the two candidates, or the prison sentence of Donald Trump in one of the four criminal trials he could face… but that will not happen .
TRUMP, UNBEATABLE
Some imagine that Trump could be beaten in the race for the Republican nomination. It could have started in Iowa, but he received one in two votes in these caucuses and twice as many votes as his two main opponents combined. So, we forget about Iowa.
The shot was therefore redirected towards New Hampshire, the electoral meeting next Tuesday, an meeting that Nikki Haley absolutely must not miss.
First, because the Republican voters of the “Granite State” are more moderate than those of Iowa, more in the vein of the Republican Party before Trump which, for example, favored an active presence of the United States through the world contrary to Donald Trump’s “America First” ideology.
Voters registered as independents can also vote in this Republican primary, voters certainly even more moderate than Republican voters who assume responsibility.
NEW HAMPSHIRE, NO SIMPLER
Nikki Haley can present herself as the alternative to Donald Trump, but polls show that the slope to climb remains steep: between fourteen and seventeen points behind the former president.
That said, Donald Trump is certainly a little wary of Nikki Haley, hearing her insult him – he nicknames her “Bird Brain” – and minimize the work she did for him during his presidency , when she was ambassador to the UN: he now claims that she was a bad negotiator. To hell with his claims to have gathered an outstanding team around him at the time… we’re not near an inconsistency.
HOPE IN THE TWISTING OF NUMBERS
Earlier this week I read the analysis of Andrew Smith, the director of the Survey Center at the University of New Hampshire, who estimates that if Haley manages to amass more than 30% of the vote, she could claim victory, whereas if Trump does not get more than 50%, one could conclude that he faces “serious competition within the Republican Party.” Him at 50, she at 30 and she would be the winner?
Perhaps we should fall back on the polls carried out across the country which give the former president more than fifty-five points ahead of his rivals in this race to represent the Republican Party in the presidential election.
We can fiddle with the numbers all we want, but the Republicans will be represented by Donald Trump in the presidential election, that seems inevitable to me. Unless, of course,…
Photo AFP
NEW HAMPSHIRE
- Trump 50% / Haley 36% (Trump +14)
- Trump 52% / Haley 38% (Trump +14)
- Trump 44% / Haley 28% (Trump +16)
- Trump 45% / Haley 31% (Trump +14)
TO THE GREATNESS OF THE UNITED STATES
- Trump 72% / Haley 13% (Trump +59)
- Trump 68% / DeSantis 10% (Trump +58)
- Trump 69% / DeSantis 14% (Trump +55)
- Trump 69% / Haley 12% (Trump +57)