The new Prime Minister has common traits with the head of the National Rally. Within the presidential majority, we want to believe that he will allow his camp to rebound in public opinion in view of the June 9 election.
“Before the New Year, it was ‘Bardella mania’ on the pitch. Now it’s ‘Attal mania'”enthuses Renaissance MP for Essonne Robin Reda. “It’s up to us to keep the advantage”adds this elected official who maintains friendly relations with Gabriel Attal. The appointment of the young Minister of National Education to Matignon, Tuesday January 9, sparked a welcome wind of hope in Macronia, five months before the European elections. The presidential camp was beginning to feel pangs of panic when reading catastrophic polls. An Ifop-Fiducial study published in mid-December, for example, gave Jordan Bardella’s National Rally (RN) at 30% of voting intentions and the majority list at 18%. Which particularly worried Emmanuel Macron’s supporters.
“And yet, we have a shot to play against the Europeans. This is the last fight of the President of the Republic!”, annoyed someone close to the Head of State a few days before the end of year celebrations. Like others, the latter pleaded to thank Elisabeth Borne and open a new sequence in the perspective of this electoral deadline. This is now done with the appointment of Gabriel Attal. “It will do us good! The president is smart, he imposes a duel with Jordan Bardella, by organizing a fight between these two young people”, observes a ministerial advisor. The president of the RN is, as in 2019, the head of his camp’s list for this election scheduled for June 9. Five years ago, Marine Le Pen’s camp won by a small point ahead of Emmanuel Macron’s supporters (23% against 22%).
“We needed a break, we were stuck”
The majority does not yet know who will wear their colors as the head of the list to counter Jordan Bardella. The president of the Renaissance party and president of the presidential group in the European Parliament, Stéphane Séjourné, is regularly cited. “It is not an insult to him to say that he is not the personality most identified by the French”however, observes political scientist Bruno Cautres. “It’s too light”, even evacuates a close friend of Emmanuel Macron. To lead the battle against the young leader of the far-right party, someone of his caliber was needed. And Gabriel Attal is the right person, according to Emmanuel Macron’s supporters.
His appointment to Matignon “is a way of indirectly entrusting him with the conduct of the Europeans”, assures the president of the UDI, Hervé Marseille, who knows the head of government well. “Gabriel Attal is obviously an anti-Bardella weapon, but it’s simply an anti-RN weapon”assures the Renaissance deputy for Haut-de-Seine, Pierre Cazeneuve.
“He is a very political Prime Minister, very good at meetings, who has very strong popularity and who knows how to embody.”
Pierre Cazeneuve, Renaissance deputyat franceinfo
“We needed a break to create a dynamic, we were getting bogged down. It will re-mobilize everyone, the activists are already at full strength”, continues the parliamentarian. In addition to the strong popularity of the new tenant of Matignon, the supporters of the new Prime Minister are delighted with his political positioning and his record. “He has laid down several red threads which can be formidable against Bardellaassures MP Robin Reda, who cites “the defense of the middle classes, the authority and the protection of borders by reforming customs.” “The best way to beat the RN is to find concrete solutions to the problems of the French (…) Gabriel Attal understands this well”adds his colleague Benjamin Haddad.
“Mutual respect and generational awareness”
The two young political beasts know each other well, in particular having faced each other six times during televised debates between September 2019 and June 2022. “We agree on almost nothing in substance, but that doesn’t stop us from respecting each other as people”for example, had launched Gabriel Attal at his political opponent during a debate between the two rounds of the presidential election on C8. “I think there is mutual respect, (…) generational awareness”grants him Jordan Bardella. “They meet regularly, but there is no proximity, they do not text each other in the evening”specifies Jordan Bardella’s entourage, who is also trying to undermine the idea of an identical trajectory. “There is a mirror in the media paths, but the political paths are very different.”
If the two ambitious people have been immersed in politics since childhood, their rise did not follow the same paths. “Starting in a family from Seine-Saint-Denis is not the same as starting at the Alsatian school [établissement scolaire privé du très chic 6e arrondissement de Paris]. And being a municipal councilor of Vanves is not the same as leading a European list.”mocks Philippe Olivier, close advisor to Marine Le Pen. “Gabriel Attal, he takes charge of the files, he is much more talented than Bardella who spends his time asking for the resignation of everyone”retorts someone close to the head of state.
After a stint at Sciences Po Paris and experience as an advisor at the Ministry of Health with the socialist Marisol Touraine, the new head of government quickly climbed all the ministerial ranks. First spokesperson for the presidential party, he entered the government in 2018, at just 28 years old, as Secretary of State to the Minister of National Education and Youth. He is then spokesperson for the government between 2020 and 2022, then Minister Delegate in charge of Public Accounts in 2022, before taking charge of National Education in July 2023.
“It’s more like a purring cat.”
Jordan Bardella conquered the National Rally machine: departmental secretary of the FN in Seine-Saint-Denis at 18, spokesperson for the party and regional councilor for Ile-de-France, at just 23 he became head of RN list for the 2019 European elections. Three years later, he succeeded Marine Le Pen as party president. Over the last five years, the two men have established themselves as two rising stars in their respective camps.
The RN general staff recognizes the qualities of the new head of government “oratories” and the dynamism of youth, but assures that this will not be enough to counter Jordan Bardella. “He’s a friendly guy, pleasant on a human level, who expresses himself well. But that’s not all. I don’t see in him a political beast, a big beast, but rather a Macron bis”confides Philippe Olivier. “When he was minister, Gabriel Attal was very good at answering questions during government question sessionsadmits RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy. But I think the ‘golden boy’ side will quickly deflate.”
“It’s not because someone is good at 100 meters that they will be good at the marathon. I saw qualities in him as a minister, that does not mean that he will be a good Prime Minister.”
Jean-Philippe Tanguy, RN deputyat franceinfo
With the promotion of the Minister of Education, the far-right opposition denounces a new Macronist PR stunt, while considering the appointment of Gabriel Attal as a new ideological victory for the far-right party. “There was an alignment on our substantive issues with the immigration law and now on the form, by positioning a young person, popular in the polls to try to counter us”, judge Sébastien Chenu, RN vice-president of the Assembly. Officially, there is therefore no fear in the Bardella-Le Pen camp in view of the European elections. “When I hear that people are afraid of Attal, I laugh. I’m not impressed at all. He doesn’t have a tiger in the engine, it’s more like a purring cat. He’s nice”tackles Philippe Olivier again.
Attal facing the exercise of power
Those close to Marine Le Pen are convinced that the new Prime Minister’s state of grace will be brief, due to the difficulties encountered in the exercise of power. “As head of government, you must also be capable of displeasing. And Gabriel Attal has no capacity to displease. He will inevitably have to announce bad news between now and the European elections. Six months is a long time”estimates Jean-Philippe Tanguy, recalling the state of public finances and the reaffirmed need to find savings for the government.
“I recognize many qualities in Gabriel Attal, but absolutely not those of attracting voters to the National Rally. It is rather Glucksmann who should worry about that”, also believes Sébastien Chenu. Raphaël Glucksmann, expected to lead the socialist list in the European elections, is currently credited with 9 to 10% of voting intentions in the polls. “He was making progress and could represent the progressives against the populists of the Bardella list. There was therefore a risk of seeing the torch of the progressive camp go to Glucksmann”also analyzes Matthieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos. “Gabriel Attal is better able to carry this torch of the progressive camp, even if he is not very distinguishable from Emmanuel Macron.”
The line and ideas supported by the new head of government still remain quite vague. Privately, the Macronist troops recognize that the hardest part remains to convince the French. Name Gabriel Attal, “this will not be enough, of course, blows a deputy. But this shows that a great political fight can begin.” With the focus on an election which will undoubtedly only be the first electoral round between two young headliners who will face each other for many years.