Pyongyang “no longer wants to negotiate, no longer wants to get closer”, analyzes journalist and writer Dorian Malovic

North Korea fired around 200 shells into the Yellow Sea on Friday, towards the South Korean islands of Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong.

“These kinds of incidents are always very serious”, analyzed Dorian Malovic on Friday January 5 on franceinfo, after North Korea fired around 200 shells into the Yellow Sea, forcing South Korea to request shelter for its civilians living on the islands of Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong. According to the permanent correspondent in Tokyo for the newspaper La Croix and author of books on North Korea, these acts “mark the North Korean desire to show that today, it no longer wants to negotiate, it no longer wants to get closer.”

franceinfo: Are we in a serious incident? And why is North Korea getting into this today?

Dorian Malovic: These kinds of incidents are always very serious. We sometimes tend to underestimate North Korea by saying: “she fires a few shells, she wants to show that she is there”. But the context is still very different today compared to a few years ago. Yeonpyeong, it’s 2,000 inhabitants, but you have 5,000 soldiers on this island, you see the North Korean coast right in front. All the inhabitants are still traumatized by what happened in 2010. Everyone knows that this place remains very dangerous, despite an apparent calm in a very heavenly setting. And in recent months, we have seen that tensions between the two Koreas continue to rise. You have a new South Korean president who is much more ‘war-mongering’ than the previous one. President Moon Jae-in was more towards negotiation, unification, dialogue. Now it’s over. And we must still remember that Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, feels himself growing with the strengthening of his alliance with Moscow and China’s permanent support for Pyongyang. So the North Korean leader says to himself: “Okay, now I want to express myself, I continue with my missile and nuclear technological improvements and I impose myself.”

Regarding these islands that you know, can we speak of a maritime front line? Are they strategic?

They are strategic because they are very close to the maritime demarcation line with the north. It’s still 100 km from Seoul and they are relatively easy targets. These are acts which nevertheless mark North Korea’s desire to show that today, it no longer wants to negotiate, it no longer wants to get closer. And besides, at the New Year at the end of December, Kim Jong-un clearly said that now the unification of the two Koreas was no longer possible, that they were two totally autonomous and separate states and that each would have to follow their own path. And it is true that this implies tensions between two nations which no longer seek, at least on Pyongyang’s side, to reunite.

We are more than ever in a logic of confrontation.

More than ever. In ten days, there is a presidential election in Taiwan which will also shape all the tensions in the Far East region. And you have an American election next November which is also eagerly awaited in the region. Because if we have Trump return to power, we know that all the cards will be redistributed. North Korea is taking the opportunity to position itself, knowing very well that the North Korean file for American diplomacy, today more than ever, is in last place, especially with Ukraine, and Israel and Hamas.

China calls for calm. Does she have the means to enforce it?

Not at all, there is no major influence from China on North Korea to ask them to stop, because China needs this buffer state between South Korea and its own borders. It is not China that will be able, overnight, to stop the technological and nuclear development of North Korea.