Let the Democrats rise in 2024

This fall, I attended a conference that shook my perception of myself as a die-hard Democrat.

The speaker, Archon Fung of Harvard University, invited me and the 400 other assembled journalists to identify the five political issues that matter most to us. Think about topics such as climate change, gun control, global immigration, the survival of the health system, the redistribution of wealth or the fate of Quebec culture and language. French.

Think about what keeps you up sometimes.

The American political scientist, director of the Ash Center for Governance and Democratic Innovation, then asked us to answer the following question: for how many of these five issues are you prepared to accept that the political camp opposite to yours is the one that have the last word? I admit that the figure I had in mind was not very high. Leave the fate of the planet to a climate skeptic? Help, I thought.

“If you answered one or two, you are not a Democrat, you are a authoritarian justicean authoritarian of justice,” Professor Archon Fung then said to his audience with eyes as round as quarters.

How do we define “authoritarians of justice”? “Basically, these are people who do not have the will to make compromises, to let go of the idea they have of justice in order to bow to a democratic process which does not go in the direction that “They would like,” explains the political scientist, who is particularly interested in American democracy.

“The problem today is that too many of us have become authoritarians of justice,” he said. Political polarization is one of the main causes of this phenomenon, he argues. The more voters find themselves at the extremes of political ideologies, the more difficult it is for them to trust democracy. They may even see it as an existential threat.

Why tell you about this conference, the main objective of which was to provoke thought? Because the year 2024 will be an immense test for democracy and for voters, possibly the greatest test in the history of humanity in this area.

Never before have so many human beings – or 3.2 billion – been called to the polls in a single year, in a series of 40 national elections, according to a count by the Bloomberg news agency. Most of these elections will involve crucial issues.

For example, the island of Taiwan will be the first to have a new president in 2024 and this election will have direct repercussions on tensions in the China Sea and throughout the Pacific. And what about the United States, India, Tunisia or even South Sudan? In all these cases, it is the future of democracy that is on the ballot.

And I’m not telling you anything by telling you that this democracy has a hard time. In its major annual report, the organization Freedom House notes an overall democratic decline that has worsened year after year for 17 years.

And morale in countries where this political system survives is low. An Ipsos poll published in mid-December indicates that half of those surveyed in seven countries – the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Croatia, Poland and Sweden – do not say they satisfied with the functioning of their democracy.

Not surprisingly, it is in the United States, where a defeated president continues to say that the last election was stolen from him, that the satisfaction rate is the lowest: 20%. It’s only Sweden where things are going well! It’s quite depressing, let’s say it.

Fortunately, the most recent studies on Canada are reassuring. In fact, the country’s satisfaction rate with democracy is equivalent to that of Sweden, at 65%, according to the Environics Institute, a Toronto polling firm.

According to its general director, Andrew Parkin, there is much less polarization in the Canadian system than south of the border. The majority of voters say they are in the center.

Furthermore, there are fewer ideological gaps between the Canadian right and left than there are between the Canadian right and the American right. “We don’t really notice any contagion from the phenomena observed in the United States. In fact, the impact is quite the opposite. Canadian political identity has been strengthened since 2016,” notes Mr. Parkin. The same goes for attachment to our democratic institutions. So much the better.

So what should we expect from the coming year? The hope that the rain of elections will provoke reflection in the four corners of the world. And not just on the big issues of the day – political substance – but also on the importance of the electoral procedure and the peaceful transition of power, whether you are a fan of the newly elected officials or not. The year 2024 will be the year where we will have to tame the authoritarian of justice in us for our common good.

The alternative ? Are condemned to vote in elections in name only, like those that will take place in Russia and Iran. And endure the irremovable ruling class.

Elections to follow in 2024

Taiwan – January 13

Threatened with annexation by China, the self-governed island with its unclear status will choose a new president in addition to a new Parliament. There are three candidates on the starting line, a rarity in this young democracy where bipartisanship has long been the norm. The election results could have an impact on tensions with mainland China since the three parties do not see eye to eye on relations with the Xi Jinping regime.

India – April and May

In the most populous country in the world, more than 900 million voters will be called to vote. ballot boxes before June 16, when Parliament’s mandate ends. The current prime minister from the Hindu nationalist movement, Narendra Modi, seems undisplaceable for the moment, but his unified opposition under the umbrella of the National Alliance for Inclusive Development of India (INDIA) will try to get in his way . This election will say a lot about the state of Indian democracy, undermined by the suppression of independent media and by very harsh rhetoric towards the country’s minorities.

Mexico – June 2

Who will replace Andrés Manuel López Obrador as president of the southernmost country in North America? Most likely a woman. The two main parties facing each other have both chosen candidates. For the moment, the left-wing candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, is ahead, but Xóchitl Gálvez, of the National Action Party, is close behind.

European Parliament – ​​June 6 to 9

If we pay little attention to elections to the European Parliament on this side of the Atlantic, those which are coming risk being an exception. With several victories and electoral advances across Europe, notably in Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany and France, the far right could do well there.

United States – November 5

We haven’t stopped hearing about this presidential election which could single-handedly decide the fate of American democracy. For the moment, everything indicates that the current president, Joe Biden, will be entitled to a second confrontation at the polls with Donald Trump, even if the latter is entangled in multiple lawsuits both in connection with his companies and with his actions in politics. Many expect a major mobilization of anti-democratic troops loyal to Donald Trump during this new election, encouraged by the fact that three in ten Americans believe to this day – without any proof – that Joe Biden stole the last presidential election.

South Africa – Date chosen by the outgoing president

In power since the end of apartheid, Nelson Mandela’s former party, the African National Congress (ANC), is not starting from a position of strength this time and could lose the majority in the National Assembly for the first time. And it is this Parliament which chooses the president. Among the fiercest opponents of the ANC and the outgoing president, Cyril Ramaphosa, we find former president Jacob Zuma, also from this party. Having not digested having been excluded from the leadership of the ANC after accusations of corruption, the latter now supports a new, more radical party.

United Kingdom – By the end of 2024

Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the third to hold the post since the last general election, announced that he would seek the dissolution of Parliament in 2024. For the moment, the main opposition party, the Labor Party, is very much in conflict. advances in the polls. At the heart of the issues, relations with Europe, immigration and the economy.