a third term which promises to be eventful for al-Sissi

With 89.6% of the votes, President al-Sissi was unsurprisingly re-elected in Egypt. But his third term risks experiencing some turbulence, due to a disastrous economic situation and the risk of spillover from the war in Gaza.

Gaza is its first concern. The Egyptian president, reappointed on Monday December 18 in his position for the third time, mentioned it in the televised intervention following his victory: ” This war must end“, said Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, ” because of the grave threat it poses to Egypt’s security and the untold suffering it causes to the Palestinians“.

Egypt, which has strong historical ties with each of the two camps, has established itself since October 7 as an essential intermediary. It facilitated negotiations for the release of hostages, convened an international summit for peace in October, allowed humanitarian aid to pass… Tons of food and medical aid from all over the world are stored in El-Arich, chief -place of Egyptian Sinai, bordering Gaza.

But if the president is so involved, it is also because he wants to limit the impact of the conflict on his country. He knows that the Palestinian issue is a highly flammable subject. On October 20, a demonstration that reached Tahrir Square, the heart of the 2011 revolution, was quickly dispersed and some of the demonstrators were arrested.

He also fears seeing the hundreds of thousands of Gazans pushed towards the south of the territory trying to cross the Rafah crossing point to take shelter on the Egyptian side and with them, members of Hamas created in the wake of the Muslim Brotherhood, his pet peeve for ten years (al-Sissi came to power by overthrowing their president, Mohamed Morsi).

A country in free fall for 10 years

Since the spring, Egypt has already welcomed more than 300,000 Sudanese who fled the civil war and fears being destabilized by the arrival of new refugees. Especially since the war is already having an impact on the economy: l Attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea will reduce maritime traffic, therefore mechanically reducing toll revenues from the Suez Canal (7 billion euros last year).

In October, as a precaution, Israel suspended its gas exports to Egypt for fear that its platforms would be struck in Gaza or Lebanon. This led to power cuts across the country, up to four hours a day. The Egyptians didn’t need that either: the country is experiencing its worst economic crisis in decades.

Yet from his first mandate, in 2014, Al-Sissi promised economic stability. An ambitious – but painful – reform program, with devaluations and reductions in state subsidies, has been in place since 2016. Measures which have only led to a surge in prices and seen the president’s popular base s fade over the years. L he value of the Egyptian pound was halved, the debt multiplied by three. Prices of basic foods are increasing every week, inflation exceeds 36%.

Today two thirds of the population, muzzled by an authoritarian regime, live either below or just above the poverty line. But Al-Sissi refuses to reduce state spending or megaprojects entrusted to the army.

Vladimir Putin may hail victory ” convincing“from his Egyptian counterpart,” clear proof“, according to the Russian president, ” of global recognition of (its) merits in solving socio-economic and foreign policy tasks in Egypt“, L Popular discontent is growing day by day in a society on the verge of explosion. His unopposed victory only offers him a facade of legitimacy which will perhaps no longer be enough to protect him.