2024, a difficult meeting for Spain. The Spanish journalist Juan Jose Dorado, correspondent in Paris, is the guest of José-Manuel Lamarque.
franceinfo: Spain has a government, the Prime Minister is the socialist Pedro Sanchez, thanks to the independentist Carles Puigdemont who “twisted his arm”, that is to say a victory for Sanchez depended on Catalan votes?
Juan Jose Dorado: Indeed, the President of the Council, therefore the Prime Minister, was inaugurated at the first attempt. 178 deputies voted for him, and trusted him. But be careful, 178 deputies represent the socialist group, the communist group with Sumar, which was a coalition of around fifteen parties, the two Catalan independence parties, the Basque independence party, the Galician independence party, and even the Parti Basque nationalist, and the Canary Islands Nationalist Party.
So, it is a conglomeration of 8 different parties who gave him their vote to be president of the government. But now we will have to govern and since the Socialist Party is in coalition with Sumar, a unity with the Communist Party and the former Podemos too, we will have to govern, they are in the minority in Parliament. The Socialist Party, and Sumar, therefore the radical left, are in the minority. That is to say thatin the other small parties, they cannot pass laws.
But the coming crisis in Spain: the question of amnesty for Catalan separatists?
Because one of the conditions for them to be able to have the votes of Puigdemont, the Catalan separatist, was that there was an amnesty law. The amnesty law which was presented to the Spanish Parliament, and which will be discussed in the days and weeks to come. But it is not because it has been presented that it will be approved, since, you know, parliamentary system, it has to go to the Senate, except that in the Senate, they are still in the minority.
The absolute majority belongs to the Conservatives, so it will have to come back to Parliament. And we know that, among the parties which voted for the investiture of Mr. Pedro Sanchez, there is at least one with a deputy, it is the Canaria coalition of the Canaries, which said that it will not especially not vote for amnesty.
There are even doubts concerning all the socialist deputies. We wonder if they are going to vote for this amnesty law, knowing that this law has done a lot of harm in Spain, quite simply because on July 21, the president insisted once again, saying that there is no would ever have an amnesty law, that it was unconstitutional. On July 24, that is to say the day after the elections in Spain, three days after this declaration, he said: “Yes, we are going to make an amnesty law, because it is constitutional, in fact.”
So Spain is in crisis, and it is ending its presidency of the European Union: a shadow presidency?
Because you realized that there was a Spanish presidency of the European Union? Yes, but fortunately someone understood that there was a Spanish presidency. But listen, Spanish President Pedro Sanchez did not have time, at the start of his presidency of the European Union, to present Spain’s priorities in Brussels. So what did he do? He went to Brussels for the closing of the Spanish presidency this week.
I believe that the immigration pact that we are talking about will not be approved during the Spanish presidency, and it was one of the big subjects of this presidency, and the Mercosur agreement, which was a priority of the Spanish presidency, it won’t happen. So in fact, this Spanish presidency, I tell myself that we will perhaps have a new opportunity in 14 years.
Like all European countries, we can say that economically Spain is sick, but politically it is not doing well either?
Politically, you understood it well, perhaps we will have elections in a few months, as soon as one of the independence parties says that it does not suit them, they are not going to vote on the budget, or they is not going to pass a law, and he is going to force new elections, knowing that there will be elections to regional governments in the Basque Country and Catalonia in 2024. So it is quite complicated politically in Spain.
But economic crisis too, in the sense that indeed, all the growth that was planned for Spain has been revised downwards, and we know that the months to come will certainly be complicated, and Spain will therefore certainly suffer. This is why the government is trying today to have social measures approved, because that will make it easier to pass the pill…