From Monday, deputies will examine the very controversial immigration bill, which poses a high risk for the government. Without an absolute majority at the Palais-Bourbon, Emmanuel Macron’s supporters will have to snatch votes one by one.
In the majority, everyone holds their breath. Under discussion for more than a year, the immigration bill finally arrives in the hemicycle, from Monday December 11. “Today I don’t know who could say with certainty how this matter will end”whispers Horizons MP Frédéric Valletoux. The text, mainly carried by the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin, was first considerably toughened by the senatorial right, the majority in the upper house. The National Assembly’s law committee then voted for a version much closer to “the balance” initial of the text, praised by the majority. This means the abolition of state medical aid (AME), the provisions on nationality or the tightening of the regularization aspect for professions in tension.
In the presidential camp, This new version of the text is supported, after strong divisions over the senatorial copy. “Everyone told us that no text would be voted on in the Senate, then that the text would be rejected in committee, etc.”rejoices the cabinet of Gérald Darmanin. “The major provocations (…) were suppressed in the law committee”, supports Renaissance MP Benoît Bordat. But the elected official, from the left wing of the party, said “Unfortunately” to expect “to violent debates in the hemicycle”. Without an absolute majority for 18 months in the Assembly, the game promises to be very complicated for the supporters of the President of the Republic.
The little calculations of the majority
For a large part of the Macronist deputies, largely traumatized by the pension reform episode, there is no question of resorting to 49.3. This constitutional tool, which allows a text to be adopted without a vote, has been widely used by the government on budgetary texts. Drawing it out on the immigration project would be a different story, with LR threatening the executive for several months to table a motion of censure. “We don’t want 49.3”insists Renaissance MP Benjamin Haddad. “It would be a huge mistake (…), the political cost would be greater than a defeat”, adds another member of the majority. Clearly, MPs must be able to vote.
“I want us to go to the vote. I’m tired of us playing defensively, the opposition must assume their responsibilities for not working in the general interest.”
Bruno Millienne, MoDem deputyat franceinfo
To hope to win, however, we will have to convince part of the opposition to vote for the text, or at least to abstain. In the hemicycle, Emmanuel Macron’s supporters have 251 votes, far from the 289, the threshold for an absolute majority; even if this threshold will not be exactly there on voting day because not everyone will be present. This does not prevent ministers and deputies from taking out their calculators, like House of Cardsthe famous American political series. “If the majority votes as one, we would be missing 40 additional votes; or 20 votes and 40 abstentions; or 80 abstentions“, details at Paris Match the Minister of Relations with Parliament, Franck Riester. On the eve of the examination of the text, the certainties of the Macronists are very slim: the presidential camp in its overwhelming majority should vote for and a good part of the left, against. Cyrielle Chatelain, president of the EELV group, confirms that environmentalists will all oppose the text, as will the LFI deputies, according to elected official François Piquemal.
At present, only the Liot group (Liberties, independents, overseas and territories) is somewhat willing to help the majority. The three members of the law committee of this small heterogeneous group made up of 21 deputies approved the bill. According to our information, 15 of them would be ready to vote for the text, four to abstain and two to vote against. Attached to the initial balance of the text, Bertrand Pancher’s group nevertheless reserves its final vote for the end. “It will depend on the study of the text in session”warned MP Benjamin Saint-Huile on Tuesday at a press conference.
LR deputies at the center of the game
The main issue for the government lies on the right. The 62 deputies The Republicans can in theory allow the presidential camp to win a majority. “Among the LR, it will come down to the balance between votes against and abstention”, anticipates a minister. This seems to be going very badly. “We will not vote on the text of the bill as it was adopted by the law committee,” warned the president of LR, Eric Ciotti, on Wednesday at a press conference. The Republicans defend a return to the text voted by the Senate.
But since the start of the legislature, right-wing deputies are far from all aligned with the group’s official line, as evidenced by their deep divisions on pension reform. On the immigration text, franceinfo questioned the entire group. Eighteen deputies responded, expressing points of view sometimes different from those of the party leadership.
First there are the very few elected officials who support the current text. This is the case of Mansour Kamardine, deputy for Mayotte, who, in committee, voted for the text. “His case is special. I don’t know if we would have voted differently”, defends his colleague Yannick Neuder, deputy for Isère, in reference to the critical situation on the island. Among the “pros”, there is also Alexandre Vincendet, on the fringes of the group and close to Edouard Philippe: “As it stands, I will vote for the text. I am not satisfied with that, but essential measures for the country are there, supports the elected official from Rhône. If we do not vote on this text, will we have an opportunity to vote on it soon?”
“Let’s wait for the session”, “nothing has been decided”…
Others, a little more numerous, adopt a more cautious but less firm discourse than their leadership, leaving meager hopes for the presidential camp. “Let’s wait for the session, which can still move lines”argues Pierre Cordier, elected official from the Ardennes. “I don’t know yet what I will vote for. I’m waiting to see during the session”cautiously assures Marie-Christine Dalloz, MP for Jura. “Abstention or against”summarizes Vosges resident Stéphane Viry, who is also waiting for the session.
“If things do not change in the chamber, I will position myself against it.”
Jean-Pierre Taite, LR deputy for the Loireat franceinfo
To transform a vote against into a simple abstention, “we must measure the degree of acceptance of our proposals”, believes Julien Dive. The elected official from Aisne expects developments on state medical aid, migration quotas or regularization in professions in tension. But for Emilie Bonnivard, elected representative from Savoie who will vote against, mass is said: “The text will not be significantly modified during the session.” Which would therefore push a very large majority of LR elected officials to vote against.
This is also the case for the 88 deputies of the National Rally, who have not cast their vote against in stone and like to cover their tracks. “Nothing has been decided, it depends on the final text (…). In particular provisions on the regularization of undocumented workers: “The majority can always remove this measure from the text”, suggests Renaud Labaye, the group’s secretary general. A massive abstention on the far right would then play into the hands of the government.
A handful of abstentions on the left?
In the absence of potential abstentions on the right, some among Emmanuel Macron’s supporters find themselves dreaming of convincing their left-wing colleagues. “We“We know that people and not only at LR will not fight against the text and could have things to do during the vote”confides Renaissance MP Ludovic Mendes.
On Tuesday, the boss of the communists, Fabien Roussel, left the door open, on Sud Radio, for an abstention from the group, emphasizing the “a lot of work done by colleagues in committee to correct the Senate text”. “It is only at the end of the debates that we take stock and make our final vote knowntempers the boss of the PCF deputies, André Chassaigne. On this point, the text submitted to us absolutely does not allow us to provide our support.” Others are even more frank. “Fabien Roussel speaks for himself and not in the name of the group”assures Davy Rimane, MP for Guyana, who will not be able to “caution” the text as it stands.
Nuances, however, appear within the communist group, among overseas elected officials. “It is a vote against which is looming, but the content of the debates and the adoption of amendments will predict the final vote”, assures the entourage of deputy Frédéric Maillot, elected in Reunion. Martinique MP Jiovanny William also leaves the door open to abstention, but he warns that he will vote against in the event of “ofattnew rules relating to procedural guarantees, deadlines, the right to an effective remedy, the DNA of the rule of law. On the PS side, abstention is not at all envisaged, according to Hervé Saulignac, elected official from Ardèche. However, the deputy from Guadeloupe Christian Baptiste assures Figaro not be closed to this option.
These few potential abstentions will not be enough to tip the scales. A framework of the majority confirms that as it stands, the text would be rejected. But, he adds, “we will learn as we walk”. The Macronists have ten days to avoid a major snub.