Rich countries will have to do without fossil fuels by 2040 to limit warming to 1.5°C, scientists estimate

Such a timetable is improbable, foreseen in any of the energy transition scenarios, even the most optimistic.

We will have to speed up. The developed countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will have to abandon all fossil fuels by 2040, if they want to limit warming to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era. The rest of the world will have to do the same by 2050, according to a reassessment by renowned climatologists, which they sent on Friday December 8 to the head of the UN and the UN Climate, in the midst of COP28 negotiations.

This calendar is the result of calculations by Johan Röckstrom, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, and his counterpart Pierre Friedlingstein, of the University of Exeter in England.

The two climatologists base their conclusions on estimates by the IPCC of “carbon budget” remaining to meet the limit of 1.5°C, that is to say the quantity of greenhouse gases that remain to be emitted into the atmosphere to cause such warming. According to the note, OECD countries are expected to phase out coal by 2030, followed by the rest of the world by 2040. For oil and gas, the exit is expected to occur in 2040 for the OECD and 2050 for the others. Such a timetable is improbable, foreseen in any of the energy transition scenarios, even the most optimistic.

Since the 19th century, the average temperature of the Earth warmed by 1.1°C. Scientists have established with certainty that this increase is due to human activities, which consume fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas). This warming, unprecedented in its speed, threatens the future of our societies and biodiversity. But solutions – renewable energies, sobriety, reduced meat consumption – exist. Discover our answers to your questions on the climate crisis.