towards a third term for President al-Sissi, despite the very poor economic and social situation in the country

The presidential election will take place in Egypt from Sunday December 10 to Tuesday December 12. The election is unsurprising and President al-Sissi is heading towards a third term. But the country is experiencing its worst economic crisis, with 40% inflation, and social discontent is only growing.

The presidential election, which will take place in Egypt from Sunday December 10 to Tuesday December 12, is not of much interest in itself. Released in 2018 with 96% of the vote, and facing three other little-known candidates, no suspense surrounds the reappointment of Abdel Fatah al-Sissi as president.

On the other hand, it is a much less flamboyant raïs than in previous elections who will be re-elected. The cause is a very degraded economic and social situation since the war in Ukraine. Egypt was in fact the largest importer of wheat in the world at the time.

A catastrophic situation since the war in Ukraine and the wheat crisis

The Covid years had already weighed down the tourism sector, one of the pillars of the country’s economy. And despite a policy of major works, carried out by companies linked to the army, Egypt is going through a phase of great distress. The national statistics institute reported in September an annual increase of 71.9% in food prices, 15.2% for transport and 23.6% for clothing. In recent months, Egypt has experienced an increase in inflation, which is at 40% and a devaluation of almost 50%. The daily life of its population, nearly 106 million inhabitants, is deteriorating day after day, with a private sector contracting and public subsidies disappearing one after the other under pressure from the IMF.

Today, Egypt is the second country in the world most exposed to the risk of payment default, according to Bloomberg. As a result, the Gulf monarchies, notably Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, are finding it more difficult to put their hands in their pockets to replenish the Egyptian coffers, which resemble a Danaides barrel.

The war in Gaza still weighs down tourism and excites revolt

An aggravating factor is that Egypt has war on its doorstep, with the Gaza Strip being shelled by the Israeli army. It should be remembered that for several years, the Sinai Peninsula has been a closed military zone. The Egyptian army continually faces jihadists from al-Qaed and Daesh. Since the Hamas attack on October 7 against Israel, the war has reignited in Gaza, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi has been under pressure from the Egyptian street, which is overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian.

This war is therefore for the country a threatens the Egyptian economy already on the ground, with a new blow to tourism, while reviving the protests in the streets. After a parade in Tahrir Square last October, no more demonstrations of solidarity with Gaza are authorized. Egypt, which signed the first peace treaty in 1979 with Israel, tries to mediate between the warring parties and firmly centralizes humanitarian aid for Gaza in al-Arish in northern Sinai.

Marshal al-Sissi undoubtedly hopes to take advantage of his position asessential interlocutor and reap profits when the war ends. He will be able to claim a political role between Israelis and Palestinians, and above all obtain financial aid from international donors and the Gulf monarchies to restore some oxygen to an Egyptian economy in complete depression.