(Dubai) La 28e UN climate conference in Dubai is suspended on Friday for the publication of a new draft agreement and perhaps new formulas on fossil fuels, while the final straight line of negotiations begins, in a atmosphere more hectic than ever.
Not yet pessimistic
“Please, let’s finish the job!” » launched the President of COP28, Sultan Al Jaber, Friday morning to the countries’ negotiators, after the traditional day of break on Thursday. He put four pairs of ministers from developed countries and the South to work to unblock the discussions.
He requested a third version of the draft agreement as early as Friday afternoon. “Fair and orderly exit” or reduction, referring to the capture of emissions… Delegates will scrutinize the formulas around fossil fuels.
Questioned at a press conference by AFP, he did not promise that coal, gas and oil would appear in the final text, but he repeated, as he has done for six months, that the reduction of fossils was “inevitable” .
“It is certain that the decline in the consumption of fossil fuels will occur, eventually,” he replied. But, in allusion to his usual position that oil should not be disconnected too quickly, he again called himself “realistic, pragmatic”.
“We must be fair. We must be fair. We must be orderly and responsible in the energy transition,” he said.
Sultan Al Jaber, also head of the oil company Adnoc, warned the 197 participating countries that he wanted to close the COP on time, Tuesday at 11 a.m. (2 a.m. Eastern time), which would be exceptional: the last four COPs have all exceeded by more than 24 hours.
“Let’s make this COP the most important since Paris,” said Dane Jorgensen, one of the ministers in charge.
Constructive China?
Despite its opposition to an abrupt exit from fossils, of which it is the world’s largest consumer, China is considered “constructive”, participants report.
Its negotiator, Xie Zhenhua, is holding more meetings, seeming to indicate that his country does not want a final fiasco.
“China is the world’s largest producer of wind and solar power. And it has the capacity to respond to climate change on the same footing as rich countries while sharing the same concerns as developing countries,” said Yuan Ying of Greenpeace East Asia on Friday.
“This intermediary role allows China to unblock these negotiations stuck in the second week,” hopes the expert.
Many diplomats see a very positive sign in the joint US-China declaration in November. The two powers proposed to “sufficiently accelerate the deployment of renewable energies” to “accelerate the replacement of electricity production from coal, oil and gas”.
Original formulations can still emerge: “it’s not binary or trinary, we will have to find something that allows us to have a consensus,” confides a negotiator from the fossil exit camp.
Saudi obstruction
The group of Arab countries and Saudi Arabia in particular are “very obstructionist,” confides an observer from an NGO.
“Riyadh wants to clearly show that they will not change their energy policy under pressure from climate activists,” analyzes for AFP Umar Karim, country expert at the University of Birmingham.
At the same time, underlines Kristian Ulrichsen, Middle East expert at Rice University, “the Saudis do not want to appear isolated.” He believes that the kingdom will seek alliances with other countries, including Russia and China.
“No more oil”
Dozens of young activists gathered on Friday to call for an end to fossils, during a demonstration organized by “Fridays for Future”, the school strike movement launched by the absent Swedish Greta Thunberg.
“No more coal, no more oil, keep the carbon in the ground,” chanted the demonstrators, while representatives of youth in Ecuador, Congo, Pakistan, Sudan, Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories took turns using the megaphone to denounce the inaction of the international community on the climate, but also on the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.