A rare analyst to have glimpsed Hillary Clinton’s defeats against Barack Obama and Donald Trump, Marie-Christine Bonzom has covered seven presidential elections and five presidencies. At the invitation of Dutyshe occasionally puts her expert eye on the 2024 presidential campaign.
The campaign for the 2024 presidential election in the United States is entering its second year. It actually started even earlier than the previous ones, just after the legislative elections in November 2022, with the declaration of candidacy of Donald Trump, followed by that of Joe Biden in April 2023.
At this point, the 45e president gained the upper hand on the 46enot only in opinion studies carried out on a national scale, but especially according to polls in the so-called undecided states, which, in the American electoral system, happen to be decisive.
On the basis of this data, and if the vote took place today, Trump, despite being hit with no fewer than 91 charges before several jurisdictions, would be elected. He would win both the direct popular vote, that is to say the majority of votes cast across the country, and the indirect vote in the electoral college, that is to say the majority in the states, notably key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada or Arizona.
This situation has shaken the elites of the Democratic Party in recent weeks, particularly during the publication by the New York Times of a study in key states. Its causes relate to both Trump and Biden.
The outgoing president and his actions are very unpopular with Americans. At this point in office, Biden is, along with Trump, the most unpopular president since Jimmy Carter. Biden is even more unpopular than Trump was at the same point in his presidency: he is only 40.6% satisfied, compared to 43.4% for Trump, according to polling averages kept by Real Clear Politics.
Biden’s record on several of the issues that most concern Americans is also highly contested. His economic policy only satisfies 38.4% of his compatriots and his action against inflation only 35%. Its record on immigration is considered positive by only 34.5% of respondents.
Foreign policy is not one of voters’ highest priority issues, but Biden, whose supposed strong point, is strongly disapproved in this area too, with only 36.8% satisfied, still on average surveys. A disapproval which does not date from the current conflict between Israel and Hamas, but which dates back to the disastrous conditions of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in 2021.
In addition, Biden’s record age for a White House candidate and his cognitive problems have worried the vast majority of Americans for months, including a good portion of Democratic-leaning voters.
Biden’s weaknesses help Trump, but the Republican’s ascendancy in public opinion can also be explained by reasons relating to himself.
If the major fact of this campaign is the massive rejection caused by Biden and Trump since the vast majority of Americans want neither, Trump is less rejected than Biden, whether in the electorate in general or in his own party.
Although he has become a career politician, Donald Trump still wants to be the anti-system candidate and continues to ride the wave of Americans’ discontent with their elites and their institutions. A position fueled today by the trials against him across the country and which he attributes to the corruption of the system by political appointees and elected officials of the Democratic Party (at the FBI, in federal and local judicial authorities, notably ).
An evolving campaign
Moreover, whether thanks to the passage of time or a comparison with Biden, Trump sees his record as president and even his personality being reassessed in a more positive way, particularly by independent voters. So much so that 52% of voters most likely to vote now judge Trump’s record in the White House favorably. So much so that the percentage of favorable opinions about Trump on a personal level increased to join that of Biden, at 40.3% on average in polls. Today, Americans say they trust Trump more than Biden to manage immigration and the economy.
Furthermore, even if the comings and goings in court hamper him considerably, the Republican is leading a strategic campaign on the ground, focused on key states. He has visited Arizona at least three times in 2022. He was in Georgia last June, Pennsylvania and South Carolina in July, Michigan in September and Nevada in October. To date, Biden has only made one campaign rally, in Pennsylvania, nearly six months ago.
As a result, Trump is making significant gains nationally among crucial categories of the electorate, particularly independent voters, 18-39 year olds, Hispanics and blacks. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden obtained a majority in these four categories. Today, it is Trump who attracts most independents and those under 39. In the six key states surveyed by the New York Times, the ex-president even received the voting intentions of 22% of blacks; a high number for a Republican candidate.
But the presidential campaign is evolving, because there is a lot of uncertainty. The excitement is palpable within the two dominant parties. Feverishness among Democrats, including figures like David Axelrod, Barack Obama’s campaign strategist, are now saying out loud what many have been thinking quietly for a long time, by calling on Biden to give up. Feverness among Republicans, who know that a conviction of Trump could ruin his chances with independents and certain Republicans.
Trump should therefore not overinterpret the ascendancy he has gained over the outgoing president. The presidential vote will not be held before November 5. Before that, there will be the Republican primaries which begin on January 15 and trials against Trump throughout 2024. And then, if the polls show that Trump would beat Biden today, they also show that his Republican rival Nikki Haley and even a “generic” Republican candidate would win more easily than Trump over the outgoing president.