The economic update presented earlier this week by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland was unequivocal: the federal government is broken as a nail.
The federal government has spent too much in recent years. Yes, there was the pandemic, but long before this health crisis, Justin Trudeau and his team were spending lavishly.
Result: the federal government no longer has space on its credit card. When the interest on debt service is higher than all the health transfers that the federal government sends to the provinces, the situation is dramatic.
Drug insurance
For more than two years now, the minority Liberals have kept themselves alive thanks to the support of the NDP. We feel that the New Democrats would like to break up this marriage, but they must find the right moment.
There will probably be an opening during the next budget in spring 2024. Because, with the state of public finances, it is currently impossible for the federal government to implement a universal drug insurance program which would cost more or less 13 billion of dollars.
Thus, Jagmeet Singh and his MPs would lose the face of supporting Justin Trudeau without pharmacare in the next budget.
At this point, it remains to be seen whether the Bloc Québécois could decide to keep the Liberals in power. It would still be ironic to see the sovereignist and nationalist group give its support to Justin Trudeau. But, as the Bloc supported the Liberal government with its carbon tax recently, there would no longer be anything surprising.
At the polls
Beyond being defeated by the opposition parties, Justin Trudeau could himself be preparing his downfall.
As he controls the agenda and the date of the budget presentation, Mr. Trudeau could plan an election campaign even if the polls are not good.
Currently, Justin Trudeau cannot continue like this for much longer. It is only during a campaign that he can improve his lot in the polls.
So, don’t be surprised, we risk voting in 2024.