A study by one of Canada’s leading climate labs says methane emissions from Alberta’s energy sector are underestimated by almost 50 per cent.
The study from Carleton University’s Energy and Emissions Research Lab also indicates that oil and gas produced in the province emit significantly more methane for energy produced than in other jurisdictions such as Colombia -British.
This is a move that serves as a warning to the industry, said lead author Matthew Johnson.
“The future is that your ability to sell (gas) in certain markets will be based on methane intensity,” he stressed.
Johnson’s lab, which published its latest paper in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, combined several different methods of measuring methane, a greenhouse gas thought to be about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide. carbon during the first 20 years after its release.
Using methods published and praised in the scientific literature and now used by the United Nations Environment Program, the team measured emissions at surface level, from an airplane and from satellite data. This is the first time that so-called “bottom-up” methods – which depend on ground measurements and estimates that are used by industry – have been combined with “top-down” methods.
The team examined 3,500 different oil and gas facilities and 5,600 wells.
It concluded that official government and industry estimates of methane emissions from Alberta’s oil fields are 50 per cent too low.
“It’s a whole different picture,” argued Mr. Johnson.
In 2021, Alberta’s methane emissions were officially estimated to be the equivalent of 15 megatonnes of carbon dioxide per year. That’s the annual emissions of three million cars, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
If Mr. Johnson’s article is accurate, the exact equivalent of Alberta’s emissions would be closer to 4.5 million cars.
The paper also concludes that methane comes from very different sources than those cited by government and industry. Discharges from reservoirs represent around a quarter of these emissions, instead of the 3% indicated by official sources.
Knowing where the gas is coming from is key to stopping its leak, Johnson said.
Ottawa reevaluates its statistics
The researcher indicated that Environment and Climate Change Canada is currently re-evaluating its methane statistics in light of the work of his laboratory, which has published a series of articles questioning the official figures. The lab concluded that methane emissions are also underestimated in Saskatchewan and British Columbia.
“Bottom-up estimates are wrong everywhere,” he said.
Lisa Baiton, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said her group is reviewing the Carleton University paper.
“There are multiple methodologies for estimating industry methane emissions, including various university, provincial and national inventories, each with their own assumptions and strengths,” she said in an email.
Renato Gandia, a spokesperson for Alberta’s energy regulator, said the official estimates reflect the best available data.
“The (regulator) continues to look at ways to work with other jurisdictions and regulated operators to improve data quality,” he said.
Mme Baiton argued the industry was on track to reduce methane emissions by up to 45% by 2025. Mr Gandia said the government and regulator were currently looking at ways to reduce methane emissions. methane up to 80%.
But Mr Johnson says those targets don’t mean much since the baseline figure is probably grossly underestimated.
“Maybe Alberta has reduced its emissions, maybe it hasn’t. We will never know because we don’t know what the emissions were in 2012,” he explained.
Far from the count
The important number, he says, is the amount of methane released for every amount of energy produced. Jurisdictions such as the European Union and the United States are already considering imposing methane intensity limits on gas imports.
On average, Alberta oil and gas producers see about 1.7 per cent of the methane produced escape into the atmosphere, according to Johnson. That’s higher than most U.S. basins and four times the rate of methane emissions in British Columbia.
“It doesn’t matter if Alberta is down 45 percent,” Johnson said. The real target is 0.2% (methane leak) and no one is there. »
Doing better is possible, he says. The study compared individual anonymous sites and found that some had only a tenth the methane intensity of other similar sites.
“Some operators do it,” Mr. Johnson said. This shows that it can be done. »
Ottawa finalizes regulations on methane emissions. The response of Alberta’s oil and gas sector – responsible for about a quarter of all methane released in Canada – will be crucial to meeting the country’s climate change commitments.
Accurately measuring methane emissions and identifying their sources is key to keeping them out of the atmosphere and preventing their contribution to climate change, Johnson said.
“There is all kinds of data here that the government can exploit,” he argued. (Emissions targets) for 2030 are entirely achievable, but only if we commit to measuring and tracking our progress. »