why the political future of Benjamin Netanyahu has darkened since the attacks of October 7

The Israeli Prime Minister, already weakened for several months, is strongly criticized and considered one of those responsible for the attacks perpetrated in his country by the terrorist group.

Criticism is raining down on Benyamin Netanyahu. While some hold him responsible for possible security failures after the deadly Hamas attacks, the Israeli Prime Minister has been, since Monday October 30, at the heart of a new controversy. The press published a document classified as “defense secret” which had been sent to it in 2016, and warned of the risks of an offensive by the Islamist movement, accompanied by a hostage-taking.

With these revelations, the unpopular conservative leader, at the head of an emergency government, is getting further bogged down in a political crisis. Franceinfo explains why.

Because he is at the head of a fragile national unity government

On October 9, two days after the Hamas offensive which left at least 1,400 dead in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu called for the formation of a “government of national unity”. Expected to last for the duration of the war against the Palestinian Islamist movement, this provisional executive has limited resources since it does not have the possibility of legislating or promoting a policy unrelated to the fighting in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, a war cabinet (bringing together the Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, as well as Benny Gantz, one of the leaders of the opposition) is responsible for deciding on the response strategy in the fight against Hamas, without needing to consult the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament.

But the establishment of this emergency government was difficult, despite the unprecedented scale of the attacks of October 7. Intense negotiations took place between Benjamin Netanyahu and members of the opposition to reach an agreement. In times of crisis with the Palestinian territories, it usually takes less than 24 hours for a national unity government to be formed in Israel. This time, it took Benjamin Netanyahu five days to obtain an agreement and a favorable vote in the Knesset.

Another element illustrating the fragility of this executive: it does not benefit from the support of all Israeli political parties. If Benny Gantz, Benjamin Netanyahu’s main opponent, has agreed to join the emergency government and the war cabinet, this is not the case for Yaïr Lapid, the other major opposition figure. As the newspaper explains The cross, the former head of Israeli diplomacy refused the Prime Minister’s offer. He does not wish to join a team composed according to him of“extremists”. The criticism targets in particular Itamar Ben Gvir, Minister of Public Security and leader of the far-right Jewish Force group, and Bezalel Smotrich, Jewish supremacist and current Minister of Finance.

Because its responsibility has been pointed out since the Hamas attacks

It did not take long for Benjamin Netanyahu to be personally implicated regarding possible Israeli security failings. First, Israel ignored a warning from Egypt, “three days before the assault” of Hamas, revealed a commission of the American Congress in early October.

The Prime Minister is also accused of having ignored the warnings issued by his own services, as early as 2016. The secret defense document revealed Monday by the daily Yediot Aharonot warns of the risk of a large-scale attack by the armed wing of Hamas, describing its modus operandi and in particular a hostage-taking. Signed by the hand of former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, this report was given to Benjamin Netanyahu, head of the government at the time, reports the Israeli press. On October 28, the Prime Minister nevertheless denied the existence of such a document and refused any mea culpa.

He even blamed the Israeli intelligence services and security officials in a message published on X (formerly Twitter) on October 29. “Never, under any circumstances, has the Prime Minister been alerted to the warlike intentions of Hamas”, he wrote. The message was deleted and replaced with an apology. “The attempt to avoid responsibility and blame the security apparatus weakens the IDF [l’armée israélienne] as he fights against the enemies of Israel”denounced the leader of the opposition Yair Lapid.

According to geopolitics doctor Frédéric Encel, a segment of the Israeli population also criticizes the policy put in place by Benjamin Netanyahu towards Hamas. The Likud leader is accused of having “let the situation deteriorate” by allowing the Palestinian movement, in power in the Gaza Strip, to develop to fuel divisions with the Palestinian Authority, which administers the West Bank. Objective: prevent the creation of a united Palestinian state and have greater latitude to continue the colonization of the West Bank, analyzes researcher Frédérique Schillo, specialist in the history of Israel.

Yaïr Lapid had already made this accusation against Benjamin Netanyahu in mid-October, estimating that “he who causes a failure cannot repair it”. But the opposition is not the only one to criticize the current head of government for failing to protect the Israeli population from terrorist attacks. Within Likud itself, some are calling for the creation of a government commission of inquiry following the war against Hamas. Appointed by the government, she would be responsible in particular for determining the responsibility of the Prime Minister in the series of attacks perpetrated on Israeli soil.

Because the attacks made him even more unpopular

Since the attacks of October 7, Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity has been in free fall. About 20.5% of Israelis now trust their government, up from 28% in June, according to a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute published October 23. A very large majority of those questioned (78%) also gave a negative assessment of the Prime Minister’s action during the week following the attacks.

A sign of this unpopularity, demonstrations calling for the resignation of “Bibi” were organized in Israel, even in front of his home. In addition to criticism of possible security flaws, the executive is criticized for its response strategy by the families of the more than 200 hostages still in the hands of Hamas. For the relatives of these missing people held in the Gaza Strip, the intense bombings on the Palestinian enclave are putting their lives in danger.

Part of the social contract between a people and their government is guaranteeing the security of the population. It’s a total failure.”, analyzes Yossi Mekelberg, researcher specializing in the Israeli-Palestinian question. Especially since during the legislative elections of November 2022, Benjamin Netanyahu made security one of his electoral slogans.

The unpopularity of the Likud leader, however, does not date from the war. His return to power, almost a year ago, was marked by a vast movement of popular protest linked to a controversial bill to reform the judicial system. For nine months, every weekend, thousands of Israelis expressed their anger and opposition to this reform desired by the Prime Minister. Many political analysts in Israel therefore believe that the rest of Benjamin Netanyahu’s political career is seriously compromised. A former Israeli general even assured, in comments reported by The Times of Israel, that it is now imperative for the Jewish state to change its leader.


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