It is as if, in the face of the global rising tide of populism, the ways of the electorate are becoming more impenetrable. We saw this two weeks ago in Poland, where a coalition of pro-European parties defied the polls by winning the legislative elections and showed the door to the outgoing government and well in the saddle of the national populist Law and Justice party – well in the saddle for the way he took control of the levers of the state, justice and the media. We saw it again, the following Sunday in Argentina, with Sergio Massa, standard bearer of a discredited center-left Peronism, coming first and, against all expectations, in the first round of the presidential election against Javier Milei, populist overexcited far-right that polls said were on the rise. Two specific cases, two happy and unforeseen democratic bursts.
While waiting for the second round on November 19 in Argentina between these two contradictory candidates – and hoping that resistance to the sirens of simplistic solutions will hold up -, one question: in a country struggling with inflation of 135% over one year and one poverty rate at 40%, how has this Peronism so much criticized for the fiasco in which the country finds itself, led by a former Minister of the Economy, has it despite everything managed to make such a good showing ? A 70-year-old political force, its well-established political machine has something to do with it, obviously. It didn’t hurt Massa either that he got some last-minute electoral goodies in the form of emergency aid and tax holidays. There is no doubt, on the other hand, that a certain number of Argentinians leaning towards Milei have, in the silence of the voting booth, given up trusting a candidate who defines himself as an “anarcho-capitalist” — a content man to be seen in the company of one of the sons of Jair Bolsonaro, former Brazilian president who instigated a coup attempt. In “Trump of the Pampas”, Milei is the explosive material of this: he is frightening since he is objectively dangerous at the same time as he channels, by entertaining, a significant part of the accumulated anger of the Argentines against the bankruptcy of the caste that holds power.
With 30% of the votes (compared to 36.7% for Massa), the “anti-system” Milei disqualified the traditional anti-Peronist right led by Patricia Bullrich (24%). This means that the extremist temptation remains strong in Argentina, impossible to ignore, as it remains in Brazil, where it is, after all, extremely narrowly (50.9% against 49.1%) that the resurrected Labor Party Lula da Silva defeated Bolsonaro in last year’s presidential election. It is not mathematically unthinkable that Milei becomes president: it would be enough for a little more than half of the votes obtained by Mme Bullrich turns to him.
The electorates, it is true, have memories of variable geometry. Including in countries like Brazil and Argentina, which nevertheless suffered terribly violent military dictatorships. Through what memory hole do all these politicians cultivating nostalgia for dictatorship arrive today at the gates of power?
Milei promises to “decapitate the state with a chainsaw” – and enjoys brandishing them at his rallies. Pro-arms, anti-abortion, climate changeist, he would abolish the central bank and radically reduce taxes and public spending, in health and education. “The redistribution of wealth is a violent act,” he claims. His most eye-catching promise is to eliminate the unstable peso and outright dollarize the economy. In doing so, he claims, Argentina clinging to the stability of the greenback would magically put an end to the vicious circle of devaluation-inflation in which the country has been sinking for decades, from exchange crisis to exchange crisis. A proposal that many voters are falling for, even though, say economists, it is a false good idea which would necessarily widen the already great inequalities without remedying either inflation or the entrenched dysfunctions of the national economy. .
Argentina has not finished faltering, given the lasting mess of its over-indebted economy. Aggravating factor in 2023: a historic drought which has weighed down the agricultural sector, the country’s economic engine, by US$20 billion in exports. Short of lifelines, Argentina has also started to trade in yuan with China which, having established a foothold for 20 years in the “backyard” of the Americans, is today the main economic partner of almost all the South American states.
We will see in three weeks to what extent the Argentines will have adhered, in desperation, to Mr. Milei’s designs. In any case, its breakthrough presents an injunction to the supporters of Peronism. Give them another chance and it could be their last.