Melting glaciers, unbearable heat, but also a crisis in insurance systems and space debris: one month before COP28, a new report from the United Nations University warns of six threats that could tip over systems essential to human life.
The concept of a climatic tipping point is now regularly used by scientists: the collapse of the Greenland ice cap, or the Amazon rainforest, are examples.
This new report proposes to create a new category, called “risk tipping points”, focusing on the interaction between nature and systems built by humans. For example: the water and food supply system, etc.
“By damaging nature and biodiversity, by polluting both Earth and space, we are dangerously heading towards multiple tipping points of risk, which could destroy the systems on which our lives depend,” said Zita Sebesvari, lead author of the report.
The analysis warns of certain threats already often described, such as the melting of glaciers endangering water supplies, or the disappearance of animal species playing a key role in their ecosystem.
But it also highlights certain risks less often cited in the context of climate discussions.
One is the accumulation of space debris, threatening to create chain collisions that could render Earth’s orbit unusable for our satellites — many of which serve to warn us of weather disasters.
Another is the threat to the insurance system: with the increase in disasters, their prices are increasing, and some insurers are even withdrawing from certain areas — leaving populations without a safety net.
Another risk is the depletion of groundwater, used mainly for agriculture, in order to compensate for the lack of water during, for example, droughts. In Saudi Arabia, these wells are already dry, the report notes, and India is also near the tipping point.
The authors also propose a new approach to analyze the possible responses to these crises, by classifying them into two categories: solutions aimed at avoiding the causes of the problem, and those of adaptation in the face of inevitable changes.
Each of these solutions can also fit into the existing system, or seek to transform it.
For example: faced with increasing temperatures, the installation of air conditioners is an adaptation solution within the system, while the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions seeks to transform it, targeting the cause of the problem .
According to the report, the solutions put in place today mainly seek to delay tipping points, rather than reinvent operating systems.