The signals are clear. The energy transition is accelerating across the planet, according to a new report published Tuesday by the International Energy Agency (IEA). But despite scientific findings, the consumption of fossil fuels remains far too high to limit warming, warns the organization.
This 355-page energy outlook report, titled World Energy Outlook 2023 and obtained under embargo, thus underlines that the global portrait of our energy consumption is in the process of transforming “significantly” by 2030, based solely on the policies already in place.
The organization predicts in particular that renewable energies will represent nearly 50% of electricity production in the world, that electric cars will be 10 times more numerous than today, that the growth in solar energy production will be stronger than ever and that investments in offshore wind projects will be significantly greater than those made in gas and coal power plants.
These transformations should ultimately lead us towards “a peak” in global demand for fossil fuels during this decade, says the IEA for the first time in a report on the energy outlook. Oil, coal and natural gas will nevertheless continue to represent a significant part of our consumption, with 73% of supply, compared to 80% today.
Getting out of fossil fuels
Overall, therefore, transition efforts remain insufficient to limit global climate disruption to a warming of 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era, the most ambitious objective of the Paris Agreement. However, the IEA judges that achieving this target “remains possible, but very difficult”.
Concretely, if we limit ourselves to the policies in place at the moment, warming risks exceeding 2.4°C during the century, which would be extremely damaging for humanity.
In this context, the organization proposes in particular that the world accelerate the pace of the transition by “tripling production from renewable energies” by the end of the decade, by reducing “emissions” by at least 75%. of methane attributable to the production of fossil fuels” and by putting in place the necessary policies to ensure a “decline” in the use of energies responsible for the climate crisis.
“The transition to clean energy is underway everywhere in the world and it will not stop,” underlines the director general of the IEA, Fatih Birol. He also insists on “the immense benefits” for health, the economy, the climate and employment that would result from a faster transition. The opposite situation is simply not viable, since it would lead to a worsening of the climate crisis, adds Mr. Birol.
For the moment, however, the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement cannot agree on the planned exit from fossil fuels. Several observers also doubt the possibility of progress at the next United Nations climate conference, COP28, which will be held in the United Arab Emirates and which is chaired by the boss of the main oil and gas company in this country.